Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: The payment network has no value. If your asset is not desirable, like this is not. You cannot have this. Like, I'm just going to build all of this stuff on top of it. And if none of the assurances of the underlying, those things don't matter because its value is in the quote unquote utility of payments. Money is its own utility. Money is its own utility. Because where on earth do you hold value in something that can hold enormous amounts of value, that has no counterparty risk, that has nobody in charge, that has nobody can. That can rug pull you.
You do not understand. That is a $100 trillion problem. That is the biggest problem on earth.
Foreign guys, welcome back to Bitcoin Audible. I am Guy Swan, the guy who has read more about bitcoin than anybody else you know. This show is brought to you by fold and the fold debit card. If you want to get tons of essentially free bitcoin just on an ongoing basis just by switching your debit card, that's fold. I have been using their fold card as my main card literally since they started it. And I religiously use gift cards whenever I have it available to me on Amazon, on DoorDash, on Uber, whenever I'm traveling on Airbnb, you name it. And they have like 3, 4, 5% back. I think Airbnb right now is like 5 or more percent back. Then you add the roundups, you have the normal 0.5 to 1.5% back just on normal things that you purchase. Auto stacking and then being able to buy Bitcoin and push it directly to the card and then buy bitcoin directly with the card and push it directly to your cold storage. Fold is the easiest no work way to stack as much passive Bitcoin as possible. And it adds up really, really quick if you just use it. Honestly, one of the best decisions I made, switching entirely over to them. It's the reason I had an investment. I had bitcoin savings that I was like, all right, I am going to put this into paradise. I had like $15,000 just in stacking with my fold card and gift cards over the years. And right now I've got like $8,400 and you can get 20,000 sets fold for free just by signing up with my referral code. And that's not the premium version. You can just sign up and get sats back with the basic free card. Practically everyone. I have gotten everyone in my family on this at this point. Check it out. If you haven't the referral code, you can go to bitcoinautable.com fold but you'll find it right down there in the show notes. So it's definitely. They support this show and also they're just a wonderful service. So check them out if you haven't. But welcome back, everybody. We have got a marathon discussion today with Jack Spearcoat show from the survival podcast Good Friend. And it's been a minute. We got kind of got cut off the last time I had him. Well, the last time we did a cross show because I sort of am on his show, but we were both on each other's show. We cover so many things that we've been long overdue to recap on and catch up. And we got into everything, like, you name it, and really it's all about bitcoin's success and adoption and all the horrors that it brings along with it. How many will refuse to believe or refuse to accept that it is actually succeeding? How many will be certain that it was hijacked? How lies are actually more enticing and more fun to engage in as it becomes more important. The revisionist history that will be endlessly repeated and how all the same old FUD will just come back again and again, every single cycle, and there's nothing. It doesn't matter how many times it's not true this time. This time the FUD is real. Get ready. Bitcoin mass adoption is coming and you're going to hate it.
With that, let's go ahead and get into this awesome discussion. It's not actually depressing. Oh, you're going to get to this awesome discussion with Jack Spearco from the survival podcast Good friend and a awesome conversation. So I hope you guys enjoy it.
[00:04:50] Speaker B: Welcome, folks. We are live. Jack Spiro here today, special show with a co host. I'm going to consider instead of a guest, Guy Swan. And if you're on Guy's channel, he's here simulcasting with me. Guy, welcome to the survival podcast, man.
[00:05:04] Speaker A: What's up, man? Good to be back.
[00:05:06] Speaker B: I'm glad we got to do this. I think the last time we got together was about six months ago and it got cut short because of a vet thing or. Or whatever that was going on. Yeah, we can just riff now. Got the man, the legend himself, Guy with me today. This is gonna be cool. So for maybe the people that are maybe new, I think if you're the bitcoin space for any time, you probably know who Guy Swan is, but maybe for some folks that don't because they're new, who is Guy Swan and what's his deal?
[00:05:31] Speaker A: Who is Guy Swan and what's his deal? Oh, man.
Ah, well, I have been in bitcoin for.
So I. I have a background in film and then went kind of the technical route. I've always been like, super, super nerdy, whether it was engineering or building stuff or whatever as a while I was younger.
And then, like, I just loved story and I loved ideas, and so that took me down the film route and so I did that in school. And then film has no money in it. It's just a passion project that makes you do work if you live in la. And so I left there, I was like, this doesn't. This isn't fitting. Went back into tech and at some point in that mix, as I was discovering libertarianism, as I was going down this fascinating rabbit hole on Internet history and discovering the cypherpunks and rediscovering bittorrent as not this tool that. I mean, not this toy, basically, that I thought it was when I was younger, just where I could get music and movies, but like something that fundamentally changed the market, like it broke the model, like a business model around the whole world. And that was like, oh, my God, this was actually huge. And I. I didn't see it from that perspective. So I was rediscovering these things. And my brother was doing economics in college and we were living together, and so he would come back and we would go down the economics rabbit hole and we would argue about the stupid Keynesian crap that his college taught him. And so, like, all of these things and we're. So we're discovering Austrian economics at the same time. So we had this confluence of so many different ideas and we found bitcoin. We found bitcoin. It just got mentioned to him in a conversation online and we found it back in 2011, and we were down the rabbit hole, like, immediately, just utterly fascinated. It was literally everything that I was interested in and at the time built into one system and project and made it through a couple of very vicious and awful bear market eras of bitcoin.
And then in 2017, when the altcoin bubble happened and all this occurred, and then we were down on the bear market side again. I had been thinking about making a podcast or doing something, being present in the bitcoin space, you know, and I realized that I had sat on that for like two to three years and done nothing with it. And so after the 2017, after it popped and we were back down, I was like, I just let this whole thing happen again. And I feel. I felt like I was still not a part of it, you know, like I was just lurking.
And so I started a podcast, started, what is bitcoin Audible today? And I read articles, research papers, cypherpunk history, Austrian economics, pieces, like, you name it, you name it. If it's related to bitcoin, I've covered it on the show. And it started to grow from there. You know, first episode was just me reading into my iPhone, and, like, 12 people listened to it, and I was like, what? Okay? And I saw. I did it again the next day. And, you know, 1400 episodes later, six years now, it's. It's been a huge success. I. I don't know. It. It's done. Great. I love it. I love digging into the ideas. I love talking with people in the. The space and staying up on everything. And I am the guy who's read more about bitcoin than anybody else. You know, done audiobooks. Like, 20. I don't even know.
[00:09:25] Speaker B: I counted today. I think I got 23. 23. 23 is what was on Amazon that I tracked with your name. And I. I think I rounded it to two dozen in the show notes, because 23, you got to go through another bad number.
[00:09:39] Speaker A: I gotta, like, jack.
[00:09:40] Speaker B: Yeah, you gotta jack it up. 21's a good number after that.
[00:09:43] Speaker A: I got a couple more on the way. I got a couple more on the way.
[00:09:45] Speaker B: So you need even numbers or fives and zeros. Like, that's. That's how all things should end. That's. It sucks. You're actually on episode 3599 of the Survival podcast today. You missed a round number by one episode one. Yeah, yeah, 3600.
[00:10:01] Speaker A: You have to bring me back for 4K.
[00:10:02] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah.
[00:10:03] Speaker A: Oh, 10K. When we're up to 10K.
[00:10:05] Speaker B: I. I agree it might all be dead by then, but if the. If the idiots in the Department of Defense and the Deep State have your way, we might all go up in a blinding flash of light on better topics, though. You and I were just riffing a little bit before I brought you on what. What is being in the space now for over 10 years taught you about people's inability to accept something that's right in front of them. Like, we were just talking about how we're hearing the same crap. We're hearing quantum computing is gonna break bitcoin. Like, where have we heard that before, right? We're. We're hearing stuff like it's. You know, it's. It. It's It's a tulip. I just heard tulip bulbs again. And I.
[00:10:52] Speaker A: And as you said, it is remarkable how little people understand the history of tulip bulbs. They have no idea how any of that happened.
[00:10:59] Speaker B: Like, I tried planting my bitcoins in the ground to grow more of them. It didn't work. But kind of a really astute thing you said. And I guess I knew this, I just didn't really think about it this way. It's one thing when these new people show up and they repeat these old lies, but there are people that are.
[00:11:14] Speaker A: Literally, they don't know. They haven't heard the argument against it. Right.
[00:11:18] Speaker B: I'll give anybody a pass on not knowing because you weren't here to a degree anyway because then you shouldn't talk so much. But what I'm talking about are the people like that we've watched 10, 12 years now say the same stupid and be proven wrong. And they still keep saying it. What do you think causes the human mind to reject the thing that's right there, that's working for everybody else?
[00:11:41] Speaker A: I don't know.
I just, I honestly don't know.
It's.
It's uncomfortable, particularly depending on how deep seated an idea is to address it. Like, I know like as a flag, growing up as a flag waving Republican, you know, kind of like America's freedom sort of thing. And in that culture, I remember like how difficult it was for me to accept and I, and I had to literally have multiple different threads in completely different categories or disciplines, I guess reinforce that, like areas in which I was happy to go down the rabbit hole because it wasn't, it didn't appear to be challenging that idea.
But like as. And I think that was a big part of my realization that, you know, the American government was not the good guy, you know, that we've done horrible, horrible things. That it is, the whole system, the whole structure of it for a very long time has been super corrupt. I mean, and that's with the fact that America still has been largely the most free nation on earth. But just what the government has, like I thought, you know, the world wars and the Great Depression, you know, that the government saved us from this thing. You know, I believed all the. It just seemed like you're. The history story that you are told in school is just that the good guys always win.
And then when you actually learn the history, you're like, none of you are good guys. Like all you, you're all terr. Like you all did horrible, horrible things and there was no Reason for any of this to even happen. Like, you caused this, you know?
[00:13:30] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:13:31] Speaker A: And that was a. That was a very difficult realization. I remember the moment, actually, when I was kind of felt lost because I had been like this patriot and there was this part of my identity that was like flag waving, you know, And I thought I lost that. And then I remember it was a Benjamin. Benjamin Franklin quote that. That hit me because I had equated freedom with the idea of American, like, the idea of, like, the government and this. This nation. And then Benjamin Franklin had a quote that said, where freedom reigns, there is my country. And it just made me realize that I had just equated two things in my mind that weren't. And I could still be and hold all the values that I'd always held. It's just not connected to what I thought it was.
And in that same way, in a very similar way, I think when you start to identify with an idea, it becomes extremely difficult to.
You just want to believe that everybody else is stupid. If your model of the world doesn't play out and then there's this level of, like, belligerence and like, digging in your heels that if you go through two cycles, three cycles of this, and it's still it, it exponentially continues to negate your model. You just want to believe. Like, I literally hear people say it's like, well, maybe bitcoin. I've hear. I literally have heard people capitulate. And the not too distant or in the recent past with this framing that, like, okay, stupid is just gonna win. I guess I should get some. And I'm just. I'm just like, maybe. Maybe your model isn't right, you know, like, maybe you just have a model that is not correct. If it continues to just not map reality at all. Like, if you thought if you had a map of the world and you kept. And you know the coast, you're going up the coast, and it says that this part of the coast is flat. And then every single time, you definitely have to turn the sail and you have to go around, like, at some point after you do that five times, don't you think maybe the map is wrong?
All of our mental models are just maps. If the world does not line up, if what is happening is exponentially, exponentially defying your model, maybe consider your model is broken. And that doesn't mean you're stupid. You don't have to take it personally. Everybody's models are broken. All models are broken. Models are useful in, you know, painting, basically a finger painting picture of the world. It can never be completely accurate. All we have are dumb like monkey brain, like simplifications of what's really happening in the world. So like get over it. You're right, you were wrong. Like now just add, like maybe you can learn something. I don't know.
[00:16:24] Speaker B: I think part of it's just psychology and you know, getting out of the bitcoin space to explain things about bitcoin is a good idea because analogies let people let go of things. So I'm sure you've heard of the boiling frog analogy, right? You put the frog in the water and you turn the heat up real slow and the frog just sits there and dies. We'll go and tell somebody that does not. That doesn't work that way. And watch how triggered they get very angry, right? Well, it doesn't make any sense that it would work that way. Like somebody thought it up that probably wasn't even trying to say it was real. And then it got repeated enough and when things are repeated enough and more over when people repeat them themselves. Which is part of, to me, I believe the programming of statism, religion, etc get people to repeat things long enough. It's not so. Remember was it Goebbels or one of the Nazis said if you get people that if you tell a lie loud enough and long enough, people will believe it. But the real power is in getting them to say it themselves. Like mass save lives. Right? You get them to do that long enough and then they'll get violently angry at, you know, they got validly angry at me because I was in the middle of the wilderness fishing without a mask on, literally like 10 miles from a road. And I did this little. I had to get enough signal I could do a little live video. And I had people screaming at me in the middle of COVID I was killing people because I was daring to be out in the wilderness without a man. There's not even another human here. Even though it doesn't. Regardless, it just doesn't make any sense. And I think that there's. There is a point where people have said something or if something they really, someone they really admire has said it many times, it becomes like gospel. Thou shalt not change it. And I think in this space you're doing this at your own peril. I think we get a lot of heat from people for saying things like have fun staying poor or whatever. But you know, we don't just walk around saying that. That's pretty much after you've tried to help somebody like 20 times and you're like it like that. What do you, what else do you want me to do? Because I've given you the facts, I've given you the theory, and you've given me nothing but emotion and I'm done now.
[00:18:20] Speaker A: And it's also funny about have fun staying poor.
[00:18:24] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:18:24] Speaker A: Is. It's not wishing poverty on people. It's not saying you suck, I hope you end up poor. No, it's saying that you're defending the thing that is making you poor right now. I guess if you want to do that, have fun staying poor. You know, it's like it just, it's just like I'm just going to throw my hands up because I don't know what else to do. I'm trying to tell you something that's going to help, you know what I've.
[00:18:50] Speaker B: Tried to say and it sounds arrogant, but I don't mean it to. But all you've done, I'm talking to my own audience here. All you've done by ignoring my advice for the past 12, almost 13 years now is guarantee that you're not a millionaire today. Because if you would have took my advice, you, you would be honestly, if I would have taken my device I'm giving today, if I would have known that advice when I started, I'd probably be like, hi folks, we're coming from Jackistan today. Right? I mean, if I just had back all the bitcoins that I spent in the beginning, but in the beginning there was a very big movement to spend it. If you didn't spend it, it wouldn't work. If you didn't spend it, it wouldn't become what it could become. It was a payment system and this led to all the shitcoining with its faster, cheaper, more transactions per seconds. I'm interested in what your thought is on this. I, I contend the main reason that bitcoin is not used enough as a payment system today to pacify people's desire for that has nothing to do with how slow it is, how expensive it is, the code, any of that, it's tax treatment. If you're running a major business and you need to receive revenue, convert and then go back out to spend revenue to cover expenses. This is an accounting pain in the ass unless you completely automate it and then you're still driving down your revenue in some ways because of these additional steps in conversion costs. Because let's say I take bitcoin all this week and I, you know, I'm a company, I'm not, I'm not bill selling, you know, plums and ammo out of my backyard. I'm, I am doing business above board because I don't want the department of SAT to come seize my assets and you know, destroy my shareholders value and all that. It is a mess to do this. And I think that that's like the one thing government's actually been able to do to really hinder it. And the brilliance of it is that nobody talks about it. Like the only person I even hear talk about is a guy that I'm in and out on at times is Sailor Michael Sale is the only person I've ever really heard talk about that.
[00:20:51] Speaker A: Yeah. In fact I should do, and let me write that down. I should do an episode on exactly that. I think it's one of three things. So I think taxes are a big part of it.
[00:21:01] Speaker B: Yep.
[00:21:02] Speaker A: I think another huge part of it is that the system itself, like money like fundamentally is not a payment network. Like every money we've ever had in history. The money itself, like what defines it as a money is separate from the payment network. Like even the dollar, like none of the payment networks we use are actually interacting with the system that defines the dollar. They're just layers, they're just services on top. Payments is a service like network of. Networks of communications are literally just networks of communications.
The interesting thing about Bitcoin is that these are a little bit conflated because you have to have transactional rules to define or you have to have transactions in order to define transactional rules for ownership. But really what Bitcoin is, is a defined digital asset and a system of rules for ownership.
So it's, and you look at like how it's designed, it is terribly designed when it comes to a retail like consumer level payments network. It's a bidding war. It is an open market bidding war. Like you don't even know when you're going to get into the next block. Like everybody just throws out random fees in this giant. It's, it looks a whole lot more like a decentralized stock market for getting confirmations like an auction than it does a retail payments network. You don't want to be like confused as to whether or not your payment's going to happen after you swipe a card. Like that's not a retail environment, you know, and if like a whole bunch of other people are swiping your card, did you have to like wait in line? You know, like doesn't. It's about consensus. So, so it doesn't help that the technology is built around consensus and integrity and ownership rule, like a system of secured ownership. But then the third one is just flat Gresham's Law.
It's the simplest, simplest, most like fundamental economics principle about money that we know is that if you have really good money, if you have really strong money in a really loose money, a very soft money environment, well then people are going to store, they're going to try to get the good money as much as they can and store it away and they're going to spend the crap money. That's literally. This is Gresham's Law 101. That's, that is, that is the definition of Gresham's Law. And this is exactly what we see play out. This was not even slightly, slightly unexpected. If you just think about monetary history and how things monetize. Look at every monetary competition that has ever occurred. When a new money comes in, a harder money comes into an environment, what happens to it? How does it react? Like, and we're supposed to like prescribe that people are supposed to do something with it. Well, why don't you just look at history and see how this happens? This continues until the loose money gets so undesirable that people just start demanding good money. And if the, the government can artificially keep up the, in the exact same way like in black markets and stuff, the government can artificially keep up the, the demand for bad money. I mean, that's why we've had bad money in governments all across the world and why you have black market prices that are, you know, 10x the official price for currencies all over the world as they begin to collapse. But it has nothing to do with the thing, is it if you have a lie about what the prices of those things are, that means it ends up being more valuable as just that. That's Gresham's law is just determining what the highest value use case is for it at the time and right now arbitrarily spending it for no reason. When everybody accepts dollars and dollars are losing value and bitcoin is gaining value, you save the bitcoin and you spend the dollars. And there's a huge infrastructure problem too. It's like saying, why doesn't everybody drive around in electric cars back when there's still no place to charge your freaking electric car? If you go out when the gas stations still have gas, it's a circular problem. If you can't spend it at places and people actually have to change their infrastructure, they have to install new software and understand a new thing. And there's this. There's these three other major resistances. The fact that the fundamental thing isn't really well designed as a payment network, that you have a tax burden. And Gresham's law is you're scream fighting against the term the current as hard as you can go, because Gresham's Law wants you to just hold on to it. Well, then, yeah, of course. Of course. I don't know. It just, it. It was always so freaking obvious that this would be how it. I. I don't know. Like, monetary history is not confusing about this. You know, this is literally how it happens.
[00:26:03] Speaker B: I think there's a lot of people. And by the way, before we progress on with this, I just. I happened to have run a poll last week on this, and I gave three choices. High fees and slow transaction times. 9% of 10% of people basically said that's the problem. 39% said number go up, which is Gresham's Law. And that's where I want to hit on next. And 50% roughly say it's an accounting nightmare. And I think that your take on that will have a lot to do with who you are if you run a business, especially one with hard, hard costs against it. Like, if I double my membership next year, my cost barely rises because I'm selling a soft product.
[00:26:39] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:26:39] Speaker B: But when I was in a business where I was sending a contractor out to do work and I had to bill the customer, take the differential, and pay the contractor, I've got to move money. I can't just say, oh, this particular bucket of money's long term. I can't do that. I've got to have cash flow in and out. That's going to anger you more toward the cash, the cash flow issue and the tax treatment when it comes to. And by the way, you know, you're talking about infrastructure. It's not just payment infrastructure, it's accounting infrastructure. Every piece of accounting software in the country that every major company is using is denominated in dollars. And everything is set up and designed. All the formulas are built around dollars. And it's perceived stability. It's not stable. It's this. Right? That's what it is. But it's perceived stability. Because what you take in as a dollar today, whether it's worth more or less, is still a dollar tomorrow. Where Bitcoin, it will change, right? For the better or the worse. But the Gresham's Law thing, if you're my age or older, and you're probably just a Little too young to really remember when this was a thing. You went to the store, you bought something, they handed you a handful of change back and the first thing you did was shake it. And if there was silver coins in there, it sounded different. And as soon as you knew that, you picked them out.
[00:27:53] Speaker A: Right.
[00:27:54] Speaker B: You could. You don't have to even look at the side. You could tell by the set like jingle. And you heard like that certain different tink. And you're like, oh, there's a silver quarter or a dime in there. And so if you had the experience of actually being an active part of a demonetized monetary unit and seizing that unit and removing it and not spending it. When somebody says you have to spend bitcoin today, you're like, yeah, but I'm not gonna. Right? I'm just not gonna. Because this is. I look at this as there's. We take two words, we throw them together all the time. And I think in the. In this space the crypto Bros. Have made it worse by cryptocurrency. We take currency and money as though they're the same. To me, they're really not. A currency is something anybody can create. Governments are really good at creating currencies, just not managing them. But money is something that the market will select as money regardless of what government says. The market doesn't give a. Like, I know the best value, the best place to store my wealth is here. And money is restoring wealth. It can be a means of payment.
But if you have a low value currency sitting next to a hard quality money, people will spend all the currency before they spend a fraction of the money. Because you're dumb. If you. I'm sorry about all these people that really want this to be what Satoshi wanted. And we'll get to that in a bit. I got some things I want to talk to you about that with. Because that is the corners creed, man. Especially certain pointers. Right. But what's the show she wanted? But what Satoshi coded was consensus that ah, that's the way you know what somebody wants.
[00:29:32] Speaker A: That's the revolution of the system. And people just don't like a phenomenal like that is. That is a moat. That is incredibly profound.
[00:29:42] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:29:43] Speaker A: Thing that we don't have anywhere else that literally cannot be replicated. And that this is not important because, you know it's supposed to. And especially when they talk about like, oh, they used to accept it with like bitpay. Nobody accepted bitcoin, man. They accepted dollars through a system because they thought they could get More people to buy. They thought they could get new customers. That was in this new market.
[00:30:08] Speaker B: I called it orange washing at the time. Right. It was Orange Washington.
[00:30:11] Speaker A: Yeah. They took bitcoin and they turned it into dollars. It is no different from me paying a. A company that sells gift cards for dollars and then spending those dollars. The only difference, the only way that it will actually ever become a medium of exchange.
It is. It is axiomatically necessary that you go store of value, medium of exchange, unit of account, because they are dep. Liquidity of the previous era. In order to actually function. You will never. The only way we get to medium of exchange with Bitcoin is after we get to a place where everyone wants to hold Bitcoin.
[00:30:50] Speaker B: You have to choke out the old.
[00:30:52] Speaker A: You have to accept it. Everyone has to accept actual bitcoin directly, and they have to want to hold it more than its alternatives. That's it. Then it can become a medium of exchange. We're just starting into the medium of exchange era, and I really think the. The core place in which you can actually see it is noster, because you can actually do something novel with it and it changes the experience in a completely new way because you can just zap each other and value for value. Just like, you know, you posted the thing or you said in the email that you do 20 value for value. That's so.
[00:31:30] Speaker B: Yeah, cool.
[00:31:31] Speaker A: That is so freaking cool that you can do that in. In an environment. And. And that's where it will shine. That's where all the culture and, you know, slang terms will be defined. That's where it will be used as a medium of exchange. And then that will expand when people realize that there's this whole world with these new capabilities and new things that you can do, and they'll go and check it out.
[00:31:54] Speaker B: Yeah, that's reminding me too. I need to cut you in for a share of. Of boosts on Fountain today. Right. Because think about that.
[00:32:01] Speaker A: The fact that I saw your old one. Because when you had Brian Harrington. Yeah. On with me, I was reading that email. I was like, wait a second, I'm reading the totally wrong email or whatever. So I was, like, trying to find it.
[00:32:14] Speaker B: Yeah. But that's what I'll do. Since Ryan's not here with us, I'll split mine with you evenly and Tom gets his piece for running everything.
And the fact that we can do that, and it's not a lot of money, but it's.
It's frictionless. And so I think lightning is the future, despite all The FUD that says it's not. I also think there's a high probability that there'll be some sort of a bridge that'll look like bitcoin's money. Dollars are currency, but there's probably going to be a lot of payments that are dollars going across lightning or some other bitcoin network. I think that is a real high probability. And people say, well, you could do it faster, whatever blah with Solana or some crap. But if we're talking about money, what do we want? We want security above everything else, right?
[00:32:58] Speaker A: Security is integrity and liquidity. Those are the only things that matter when it comes to money.
Solana doesn't have. Like, they've got neither one of those things.
[00:33:07] Speaker B: And. And you know more about coins than I do at this point because I've so tuned out. I don't even know. I. I just. And I'll admit to anybody that's tuning in maybe doesn't know my history. I was a corner for a while. I was always what I called a coin minimalist. I was never like jumping shitcoin to shitcoin to shitcoin.
[00:33:21] Speaker A: I went through that phase. We all did. We all did.
[00:33:25] Speaker B: I looked at things like when it first came out, all go rand. And I'm like, you know, with NFTs, if we weren't making pick JPEGs, if we were actually using it like as a title to a good, you know, or if we wanted a. I thought like, well, if we wanted a public ledger that was also secure, that a lower tech blockchain or a different type of blockchain might be good for that. So for instance, you want people to be able to look up who owns the title to a property, but you also want that to be incredibly secure. You don't want somebody changing that information.
So if you could tokenize that. And then I realized this is never going to happen. And if it does, it'll be built on bitcoin. Those two things kind of came together and I was done.
And when I started seeing app builders not just integrate Bitcoin, but actually build on top of it, then it was like, okay, then all this other is supposed to do all this stuff and no one's doing it. If you remember one, Bitcoin cash, which I call bitcoin trash, came out. The only interesting thing in that to me was slp. And for those who don't know that simple ledger protocol. And it was all about these micro payments and split payments and it's everything that you can do on ln Today and you still can't do it with freaking bitcoin trash. You can't. It's not there because. And it's not because it's not doable. It's because nobody did it because nobody thought it was worth doing. And I think that's kind of around about what we're talking about here. Like, you're only gonna. If you're gonna have Gresham's lobby a thing, you're gonna only have one best money.
And therefore the investment that somebody's going to make in building on top of something is going to go to the best. And just because two guys, and I don't want to pick on two guys in the garage because freaking Mallor's built Strike in a closet or some. Right? But in the end, companies that are really going to make an investment of time and money in talent into building something on top of a payment network, why would you pick anything subpar because you think that one day it might be worth more money?
That's not how people build technology on top of a thing. That's a gambling or trader mindset.
[00:35:32] Speaker A: And it's also important to remember that the monetary premium, the entire value of the payment is built around the integrity of the value of the asset you're exchanging. You can't just like, I could build a Visa competitor that could just like make payments so, so much better. Yeah, but if I then only made it available in Venezuelan bolivars or, you know, bags of dog poo or something like, it would not make the Venezuelan Bolivars more valuable. It would not make the dog crap more valuable. It would make people go, oh, well, I'm going to buy, I'm going to buy more Venezuelan Bolivars and I'll, you know, fill my trunk full of dog crap. Because the value of this is going to explode because of this brilliant payment network. The payment network has no value. If your asset is not desirable, like this is not. You cannot have this. Like, I'm just going to build all of this stuff on top of it. And if none of the assurances of the underlying, those things don't matter because its value is in the quote unquote utility of payments. Money is its own utility. Money is its own utility. Because where on earth do you hold value in something that can hold enormous amounts of value that has no counterparty risk, that has nobody in charge, that has. Nobody can. That can rug pull you. You, you do not understand. That is a 100 trillion dollar problem. That is the biggest problem on earth. How do you achieve consensus? And how do you hold value, achieve consensus in an environment in which nobody can agree on anything? Anything in which they argue about the stupidest little thing? Bitcoiners argue internally about the most. Where there's an argument on Twitter right now about whether we should move sats to bitcoins.
Stupid. We argue about everything.
Everything.
[00:37:32] Speaker B: So stupid.
[00:37:33] Speaker A: Disagreements are infinite.
[00:37:36] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:37:36] Speaker A: The idea is, how can you defend a system such that those disagreements do not inhibit the operation of a fundamental system, of the economic system? Because when you make that money political, you do. The politics destroys the entire. The integrity of the entire system. So how do you hold value without counterparty risk? You have to do something where nobody, no matter how many times people are fudding about it, no matter how many people. How many times people are screaming at each other and arguing about the direction that it's going to go and which software they're going to download and whether or not it's supposed to be valuable or whether it's hot air? That it remains. That it remains the same thing. That it is still 21 million. That those ownership rules are not changed. And that is the biggest problem on Earth. Because humans suck at agreeing. They suck really, really bad. And if they have any amount of power, they will change something. They will use it to influence and manipulate. I think that is why bitcoin is so powerful.
[00:38:40] Speaker B: I think one of the things people can do, and I hesitate to say this because I really don't want more people doing it. To understand this, though, is to run for office. I ran for office back in the mid 2000 or mid, early 2000s, and I started finding myself thinking differently. Even though I had no intention of winning. I ran as a libertarian. I didn't expect to win. But I started thinking, well, I better not say that right? Or I better not do that, or I better not be seen saying that or doing that. And then I was talking about this to somebody at a work function and our attorney, who we had a retainer. There's dude named Jeff. And it was almost like I felt like it was in a movie where the devil's making you a deal. He walks up to me, he puts his hand on my shoulder, and he goes, I know who has that seat down there in Arlington. Do you want that seat? We can make that happen. And there was no hesitation. There was no pause. There was no nothing. This man was like, I will make a phone call to another person. We'll start doing some fundraising, and if you want that House seat, you can have that House seat. And I'm like, yeah, I don't think so. But once you experience that, then you start to realize how your mind is so easily manipulated by desires and certain things. And that's why somebody wants to go ape shit on Shitcoin xyz. Even though it doesn't seem connected, but it's. I'm too late for bitcoin. But this story I heard about this guy named Swan, right? Like, he bought bitcoin was really cheap, man, and now he's rich. And it's too late for me to do that with bitcoin. But this other one, it's only a quarter, man. It can't go lower than that.
[00:40:07] Speaker A: Coin is so far coins. Right at the beginning, the S curve.
[00:40:11] Speaker B: Is about to happen.
[00:40:13] Speaker A: Coins it, man.
[00:40:14] Speaker B: But shouldn't you be looking?
And then people turn around and say, like, you know, gold, this or this has been around forever. Or this is, you know, the most trustworthy thing. And like, the thing you should probably look at is, like, over the last decade, what is the monetary asset that has been most viciously attacked by the most entities and has not given a.
And there's only one answer to that question. There is nothing that has been hammered as hard and yet stood as tall as bitcoin.
[00:40:40] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:40:41] Speaker B: Nothing.
[00:40:42] Speaker A: Does not care.
[00:40:44] Speaker B: You could try to say ethereum, because I'll give the Ether bros a little bit that. Like, if you price bitcoin in ether, it doesn't look so good over the last two years, but overall, it's kind of hung better than anything else has. But it hasn't been attacked.
[00:40:58] Speaker A: Yeah, right.
[00:40:59] Speaker B: It hasn't been in the crosshairs because it's not the enemy, right? Not. Not. Nobody's afraid of it. You want the one that they're afraid of. They attack it and it still kills them back. That's. That's what you're looking for, you know, like the superhero that takes your power when you attack him with your superpower. Just. That's the scariest, right? Like, use your laser beams. And he's just like, now I have laser beams.
[00:41:18] Speaker A: Yeah. I posted something along in line with that actually, not too long ago, is that bitcoin was destined to be the most hated and the most lied about and the most, like, viciously attacked specifically because it will not give anybody what they want.
[00:41:36] Speaker B: I saw that.
[00:41:37] Speaker A: Everybody's got, like, their vision about it, and it's got to change to do this thing. And you literally have to just accept it as it is. And if you want to change it, you have to change it within consensus. Because the simple like, it's. Oh, my God, it's so funny to have people who, you know, people who were on the side that lost the block size wars because. Yeah, let's take that too strong.
[00:42:04] Speaker B: Let's go ahead and pick that scab. Because I want to. I want to. With our. Our mutual non. Friend Roger. Right. So Roger just did this interview with Tucker. He tells this entire story about the government's going after him because of his book, but the government was going after him before his book because by the letter of the law, he committed tax fraud. Now, I'm going to be the first person to say I think all taxes, theft, and I don't want to, even though I don't like it.
[00:42:28] Speaker A: I think he did the right thing.
I don't. I think he did the right thing. And I also get away with moral obligation. Sure, yeah, yeah. But I think you have a moral obligation to not fund.
To do anything that you can to fund as little mass murder as possible. And the, the government does nothing but destroy wealth. I mean, just.
[00:42:51] Speaker B: And I agree with that.
But, but his book and the block wars are not why the federal government is prosecuting him for tax. No, it's just not. And so I want to just clear the air that I'm not advocating Roger Ver in jail for 109 years. I don't believe that's okay.
[00:43:06] Speaker A: Even if, even, even if he committed the worst tax fraud ever and he actually owed like a hundred million dollars.
[00:43:12] Speaker B: They take the money.
[00:43:13] Speaker A: The idea of 109 year.
[00:43:16] Speaker B: That's a. Yeah.
[00:43:17] Speaker A: That's so insane. That is so insane. Like rapists get like four years.
[00:43:23] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:43:24] Speaker A: Roger didn't hurt anybody.
[00:43:26] Speaker B: People that shoot people get five years or less. Right.
[00:43:29] Speaker A: Well, I just cannot believe it.
[00:43:31] Speaker B: There are murderers, murderers who walk from prison, you know, after 20, 25 years or something like that. So that's. But his story is. And the one that I think is the most.
And I'm waiting for anybody to counter this scenario for me. His. His whole argument hinges mostly on the fact that he was kicked off a subreddit as though one subreddit had complete control over all of bitcoin. Now, I know you and you're a technical guy and I'm a sort of technical guy. So I have a bitcoin note I've been running forever. You probably have one or more, and you were probably running a node during the block wars, and you probably didn't pick up the new code. You kept running core. Okay. I have not yet found a person I'd love To talk to them, if they exist. It's like, man, if I just read one more post on Reddit, then I would have went with the bigger blocks. This whole idea that by being thrown out of a private forum, you've altered the path of bitcoin. I don't even. Can you explain this logic in any way, guy? Because I don't get it.
[00:44:47] Speaker A: Man.
Actually, frame that again. Frame that again.
[00:44:54] Speaker B: How can you, with a straight face make this argument that if Roger Vere had been allowed to stay in a subreddit differently? Like, like, because I don't know anybody. Because here's one of the things I think. There's so many people on the outside and there's a lot of people, to be fair to them, they come to this late. They weren't here when this all happened.
[00:45:14] Speaker A: And they.
[00:45:14] Speaker B: And it's. He's a good storyteller and he's a good libertarian. I'll give him two compliments on that. So when he puts that together that way, if you don't know any better, you would. You would tend to believe it. But consensus on the network for the. The base code that you're running comes from little boxes all over the world, thousands and thousands of them. And right when this all happened, I remember he tweeted, he said, don't like the code, don't run it. And my response is, we didn't. So we didn't.
[00:45:41] Speaker A: Yeah, that's what happened. It just didn't turn out like you wanted. It just did not turn out like you wanted.
[00:45:47] Speaker B: So it must be a conspiracy. Somebody did Lock stream, beamed him up to the alien ship, and then they probed his ass and then they made the block small again or something. I mean, this is.
And then the other thing people I think don't realize, like, because I know you were here for this. You remember him telling us publicly what he was about to do. I'm gonna sell all my bitcoin. I'm gonna drive the price down. Bitcoin cash is the way forward.
Handle it, is what he said. You think you can handle it? Because he was. He was bankrolled with lots of bitcoin, which he still has plenty of bitcoin, by the way. But he did then just start selling. Just start selling, trying to drive the price down. And most of us were like, oh, look, cheap SATs I bought. We bought it all the way down and all the way back up. But, like, how is there any way that you can give any credibility to that version? Because I can't. And I have Lots of people, some I really respect telling me I'm wrong. And when I get that, when it's people that I don't know or don't care about, okay, Most people I respect in other walks of life, I try to do some self examination and I got nothing here.
[00:46:52] Speaker A: There's two big problems. One is the view of the bitcoin model. Like. Like the bitcoin model in your mind, like, how and why it works, the way it works requires. Requires you to understand that it's not the social model that we usually have for how things work. And most people are still fully embraced or fully trapped in the whole he said, she said, this is what people thought. And therefore this, like the. The social model is why thing a thing went one way or another.
And so they are terribly prone to misunderstanding how the dynamics of the network inhibit the social layer from changing. Like, or basically fight against causing a massive amount of resistance for the social layer. Because the social layer is so bad at consensus and the protocol layer is great at it. And that conflict makes it seem like Steve Patterson, when we were on the show with Clint together just the other day, he kept talking about, we had consensus, we had consensus, all this stuff. And he's literally pointing to like a handful of companies and a handful of mining pools and saying that this was consensus. And then he's talk also talking about like a bunch of the core devs all thought it was a good idea to have a block size increase. And I'm like. And nobody agreed on which one? Nobody agreed on which one. That's not consensus. Consensus on the fact that, like, okay, yeah, maybe we should do this, but then how should you do this? Like, there's a very explicit, concrete thing that has to happen. The whole problem was that nobody could ever agree on how to what degree. There was no shelling point outside of the protocol to fall on. It wasn't that we didn't have any ideas and we didn't want to change or improve bitcoin continuously going forward. It was literally about how, like, your idea that there was consensus was literally the thing that we were having trouble, we had no consensus on. And then he just points to the social layer. It would be like me saying that, like, well, all the big podcasters agree on this and therefore we have consensus. You think bitcoin is defined by like the top 10 podcasters? Like, it just.
[00:49:19] Speaker B: Thank God it's not.
[00:49:21] Speaker A: Thank God it's not.
And I think you tell me if I'm wrong.
[00:49:26] Speaker B: I think some of the biggest mouths about this Never ran a note in their life, therefore they didn't participate in the quote, unquote election. Right. Like people. I think it's a stupid argument. People say in like, political elections, if you don't vote, you can't pitch well. You know, a node on the bitcoin network has more say than a voter in America.
Just on math, just on what percentage of the hole is it? And so these people haven't orders of magnitude. They haven't even begun to actually make a contribution to the thing that they say is so precious to them. And to me, like I said, it's back to. It doesn't. And my other thought is, so this is why I did it personally. Well, I just said, like, I don't even care. I'm sticking with what we have.
When I looked at all the proposals, I was like, but we have something that does that already. But we have something that does that already. But we have something that does that already. Like, everybody's like, yeah, like, well, this thing already does the thing that you say we need to do, and it's not even close to challenging us for dominance. So why would I switch to a thing that's already failing? Because I think I need to. And what it reminded me is back when I had marketing clients, I might go into a client and say something like, here's a plan for you. I think what we need to do is take this technology thing that you're working on and we need to do a press release with a white paper on the other side. Old school information capture. They don't want to do it. Six months later, you get a phone call from your client who's irate. You haven't done any press releases because their competitor just did a press release.
Right. And it's like, since I saw somebody else do it, now I have to do it. Even though when I brought it to you, you didn't want to do it.
[00:51:00] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:51:00] Speaker B: At least mine was a good idea.
[00:51:05] Speaker A: Man. One of the other things that gets me about the whole, especially with Rogers, version of the narrative is the sheer amount. Like, you know, you can make your argument without just changing the order of operations. Like, without just complete revisionist history, you know? And he does not do that. That's one of the things that bugs the ever loving hell out of me. He just tells it the way it's useful to him and that's it.
And it's one of the things that inclines me, even against my better judgment, to not even want to feel sorry for him. Like, he's Put himself in so many bad situations, he has caused so much confusion and literally been super manipulative about stuff. Like there's a reason why he ended up being called Bitcoin Judas. And it was not because he, he supported big blocks. It was not because he supported, you know, wanting to make a fork. It's because he actively attacked everybody and everything that did not want to do what he wanted to do. Like he smeared them, he said over and over, we're gonna fire the devs, they suck. All the ones that they're now saying had consensus with him, he hated them, explicitly said they're gonna fire them. When they instituted the eda, it was explicitly because they said, we are going to harvest mining power from bitcoin. We are going to kill it. We will not. Bitcoiners were literally saying, it's like, okay, fork off to your big block fork. Then we can go separate ways. We can bury the hatchet and we can just go on and we can just test both.
We're free market and everything. What we're going to destroy you. Your network will not exist. All of these miners will come over to ours and you will die. Like the, the idea that they were the good guys who were doing, who were being nice and, and that, you know, blockstream is the conspiracy when look at Jihan Wu who actually controlled the entire mining industry. He decided whether or not anybody got mining hardware and he had an explicit technical exploit which was a gross conflict of interest that Segwit as a soft fork got rid of. Yeah, totally by accident. He had a 20% advantage on something called covert ASIC boost where you could get an advantage with your hardware. Nobody else could tell whether or not you were doing it. And the upgrade that we were doing as a software because a backwards compatible soft fork or change upgrade to the network, it actually made that the ability to hide that not viable anymore. And it because it was simply how the signatures and the hashes talk together.
[00:53:51] Speaker B: Well, I learned something today. That's a new one for me.
[00:53:53] Speaker A: I didn't realize you didn't know. Covert ASIC boost. Yeah, no, that was what he was. And he is the one who got together everyone with the New York agreement and pulled everyone together and all the mining. 90% of the hash power. Agreed. 90% of the hash power all buy from Jihan Wu. And Jihan wu's gonna tell.
[00:54:13] Speaker B: I knew that, but I didn't know about the underlying exploit because while you're only studying Bitcoin, I'm studying Bitcoin permaculture biochar, aquaponics, right? So like I can't get everything, but that makes it all more true.
[00:54:23] Speaker A: And you know what he proposed segwit2.x which was a hard fork version of that upgrade and guess what didn't get negated? Covert ASIC boost. His version of it, which required a hard fork was going to keep his advantage, his patented advantage I would add. And so when he got everybody got a bunch of corporations and a bunch of big bitcoin miners together and they all agreed what was going to happen. And then Coinbase is just like publishing. This is what we're going to do now. And I'm looking at this. The people who have been on the subreddit, who have been on bitcoin talk forums, who have been on Twitter, who've been all, all these platforms, we have been screaming and arguing and fighting about this for years.
For years. And out of nowhere a bunch of big like self important, pompous corporate like exchanges and a bunch of big mining pools were going to get together and just decide and now it was over and we had to swallow whatever stupid they came up with. Absolutely not. They are the ones that created the user activated software because they lit Coinbase literally came out and said we have 40 million users, we speak on behalf of all of them. I was like, you don't speak on behalf of me. You stack a.
And that is exactly what happened. We just ran nodes and said no.
[00:55:48] Speaker B: No, that's the beauty, that's the beauty of the consensus model. I've literally had people telling me that is just absolutely ridiculous recently. Like only financial nodes get a say.
Well, I don't know of a bitcoin node that's not in some way at least potentially a financial node. But I think what they meant was exchanges and mining notes other like no, a full node gets a say like any other node.
Yeah, this is where I get robbed. You're trying to actually not just argue with. I don't argue just to argue. There's no point to it. I like to people to get educated and if I'm wrong I want to know it. So then you give them conclusive proof of what you say and they just say no. And that's again that's where we get back to have fun staying poor. Because I can't, I can't give you more than facts and if you're going to ignore facts without counterfacts, I, I'm done. I just don't know what else to say. And this whole.
[00:56:41] Speaker A: It's the, it's the network of real people that matter. You know, and, you know, they always have this thing that's like, oh, well, if Amazon owns half of the bitcoin or something.
[00:56:52] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:56:52] Speaker A: Then.
Then they control it. And it doesn't matter how many nodes you have of all the other people. But, like, imagine all you have to do is think about the scenario, play out an extreme version of the scenario, and you can just understand where the spectrum is. Amazon cannot sustain their wealth by themselves. The reason Amazon is wealthy is because they give customers what they want. If a million customers are all running their own node and it says, this is how Bitcoin is and these are the rules, and then somebody who owns an enormous amount of bitcoin forks off by themselves, it doesn't matter how wealthy they are. No, it's like. It's like saying that, like, I'm wealthy because I own, you know, 10,000 houses, and then if I burn down all of those houses, I'm still wealthy, even though the houses are the thing that are my wealth. Amazon's wealth are their customers. If they fork off from their customers, they aren't wealthy anymore. You can't sell an asset to nobody.
Money is a network of communication. If you have. It's like forking off from the phone network to some other protocol and be like, well, I've got the best phone that there ever is. It's like, you can't call anybody. Like. And that is literally what a node does. It just defends your rules so that you maintain the network that you are on. And if nobody joins your network, they're not going to get wealthy off of you.
[00:58:21] Speaker B: So go ahead and just kind of steer that into answering this right here, because this is the. I hear this all the time. Could a central bank take control of Bitcoin by buying up large quantities and fractionalizing it? This is cutting a sandwich into more pieces. Feeds the world. I guess, like all of a sudden, central banks.
[00:58:36] Speaker A: No, I think they mean fractional reserve. I would assume that's what they're. For the sake of argument. So, like out of, you know, an abundance of caution. So we're not straw, Manning say they fractional reserve it because that's the real.
[00:58:49] Speaker B: You're saying then the bank would put in 10,000 bitcoin and then say we're issuing credits against it at a fraction.
[00:58:56] Speaker A: Yes. Like, yeah, I imagine that's what they're saying, that it's not reserve, it's not full reserve, basically. What happened to gold? I mean, I think gold is mentioned in it Right. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
[00:59:04] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:59:05] Speaker A: Okay. They didn't, they didn't mention gold, but I, I would assume that that's the analogy. Well, so why is that not really a risk?
Well, a. It is a risk, but it's not a systemic one. Not like it is with gold. And there's a couple of different reasons why there can always be. There's always influence.
[00:59:27] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:59:27] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. Yes. There's a fraction. Right. That's what it was.
There is all. There are always going to be ways to control or get some level of manipulation over layers on top of it. But the underlying system itself is completely open and completely permissionless. And to understand where. Why gold ended up the way it was and it's.
The ease in which it was captured is specifically because of the scale of settlement.
It works when it's small. It sucks when it's huge.
Every single Ponzi scheme, every fractional reserve system can manage with a bunch of small withdrawals.
It falls apart under big withdrawals.
[01:00:18] Speaker B: Okay.
[01:00:19] Speaker A: You cannot big withdraw gold.
You cannot take a trillion dollars worth of gold out of a system quickly.
It's the most herculean task. It literally weighs a billion pounds. You know, like it's extraordinarily difficult to move massive amounts of gold.
[01:00:38] Speaker B: You need. Ponzi scheme is never trailers or ships or airplanes like the Friendship. Yeah.
[01:00:47] Speaker A: To New York to get their gold out of the New York Fed just before they broke the gold window. They were denied, but they literally sent a, a military vessel to get their gold and it did not work because they couldn't. And the, the settlement and the risk and the counterparty control that you have when your asset is that heavy. The reason gold was so easily captured is because it was literally physical. Is because it scaled negatively the bigger it got. And the more value you were trying to move, the more difficult it is to do the opposite. Is true with Bitcoin. A purchase of coffee and gold will never make the banking Ponzi go out. You know, you can do that with fractional reserve all day, but you cannot move a trillion dollars worth of gold out of a bank and not pop that bubble.
[01:01:35] Speaker B: Okay.
[01:01:36] Speaker A: That is how you destroy a fractional reserve system.
You can move a massive amount of bitcoin instantly in 10 minutes.
There is no way to sustain reserve for a few dollars.
[01:01:51] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:01:51] Speaker A: It scales in the reverse. It's hard to do tiny payments on the global ownership like the auction, the bidding war system of the chain itself.
But you can and it does work fantastically well for massive amounts of value and massive amounts of value being exchanged and settled is exactly how you pop bubbles. It's exactly how you call the bluff on a fractional reserve.
[01:02:18] Speaker B: So what about the people that take this a different way? Instead of saying fractional reserve and they say things like, well, microstrategy could just dump all their bitcoin and crash the market on purpose and then cause a fork, which I. Okay, the first part for a time anyway. Sure. The second part I don't even understand.
Isn't this what veritried? Isn't that exactly what Roger tried? I'm gonna make it hurt so bad you'll pick up my. That didn't work.
But I guess they have more. So they could do more damage is the mindset. I.
Of course they would crash whatever their own. Their whole system now is based on bitcoin doing well.
[01:02:57] Speaker A: They would be taking massive losses on purpose. Oh yeah, they'll be taking huge losses on purpose.
[01:03:02] Speaker B: You might as well put in your mouth and pull the trigger.
[01:03:04] Speaker A: It's so the way to think about it, going back to the analogy actually really quick, is that the reason whatever happens to bitcoin in. In terms of the context of control, it also isn't really. It doesn't really matter how much somebody has. So, like, somebody could buy up half of the bitcoin if they literally keep it off the market, that they don't exchange value and they don't do anything else with it. All it does is just make it appear as if there's less supply available. But going talking about like micro strategy and stuff. And Michael Saylor is like, oh, he can dump it on the market first.
MicroStrategy is not going like they're saying that the price is going up because of MicroStrategy. They're like 1% or less of the liquidity. Like, they're a tiny portion of the liquidity. There is a massive bid underneath this thing. Like, there's no way that liquidity is like a hundred billion dollars a day or more. Like, it's huge. The idea that just because of that, again, it's one of those things that we look at the social layer and we're like, well, these two corporations agree, therefore everybody agrees. Like, if you just see Michael Saylor buying and it's like, well, Michael Saylor is the one buying. What if they stop buying? It's such a. We're so bad at understanding massive complex systems with billions of players. And that's what it is. And so what do we do? We point at like three of them and then we make big A big hubaloo about all of that.
They're the ones that do that. They're the ones that do and it just. But it's not reality. Like they cannot crash the price in like some massive massive way. They are a small amount of liquidity, a massive shift in the entire market could crash the price. But you know what happens? The price crashes. We've done that like eight times as we're not going anywhere. Like, like what could bitcoin be better at surviving than price crashes? We've done it so many times. We eat that fruit for breakfast and then we have it again for a midnight snack. We've had 90 crashes. We've had 80 crashes. We've had 70 crashes. We do periodic 30 to 40 crashes just for fun. Who gives a sell it. Like you're.
[01:05:20] Speaker B: It's.
[01:05:21] Speaker A: It's the fiat minded who grew up in a market where it's only supposed to go one way and it's supposed to be stable. You don't, you do not understand the people who have been built in the bitcoin markets.
[01:05:33] Speaker B: No.
[01:05:34] Speaker A: All you do is you have paper, you just have people. You just the just get wiped out and everybody else buys from them. Everybody who's been here for a cycle is not concerned about the fact that we'll have a 50 drawdown.
[01:05:46] Speaker B: How many shorters got there burnt off like completely castrated by the market. Like just that. Watching that cell wall go down over 100k. That was, that was fun. That was just. And you could just see as that cell wall was coming down you could just see those short positions just getting wiped the out. You're like every cycle shouldn't have done it. They do it at the exact wrong. There is a time where if you're just a trader there is a historical pattern. You probably can make some money shorting bitcoin on the way down and that. That I don't know if you'll be able to do it this cycle but I've said that before and been wrong. But I'll tell you when you're not going to do it.
November, December of the having here you have to be just a dumb. I'm sorry to think that you're gonna pull that off. It's like when it makes me think of you that cartoon with the dude with the giant fork sticking it in the giant electric socket. It says socialism. And the guy next to him says everybody that ever did that got hurt. He goes they all did it wrong. When I see people shorting bitcoin in that model I'M like, there's the guy with the fork, man. Watch his ass is fixed. He just, like, blow sparks out, like, it's gonna happen, and you know it's gonna happen. And I think one of the things I just. Listening to you talk that I realized is we are the least selfish people in the world. Because when that happens, what do we say? Don't sell. If we were greedy, you know what we'd be doing? Sell. Everybody sell. So because you know what you're doing, you're looking for more surplus capital. When that comes down, you're buying as much as you can. So honestly, we would be.
[01:07:19] Speaker A: Somebody was actually posting. So I've got, like, the Audio Knots group of everybody who donates to the show. And we've been like, a really tight crew for, like, a good number of years. And it was so funny. Somebody brought it up the other day. We were just kind of, like, waxing nostalgic about things that had happened. And he was like, you know, I remember in the crash, the flash crash in 2020, when it plummeted from like, 7,000 down to, like, 25, $3,000, you know, that everybody, like the entire room, the audionauts room, was wild. Everybody was freaking out about what they could sell to buy more bitcoin. And I was telling this story because I. I was like. My first reaction, actually, when I saw the big fat red candle was, oh, my God, Something. Something, like, huge happened. Like, there's like, a cryptography bug or something. And I went looking. I was like, type in, like, what has happened? And, like, nothing had happened. It was just. It was a purely a liquidity event. A bunch of dummies, you know, just making bad decisions and probably a long squeeze, you know, who knows?
But as soon as I realized, like, nothing had happened, I'd be like, oh, my God. Oh, my God, this is the best. This is. I have to get into this now. And I immediately. We had this, like, big shelf thing with all these, like, little, nice, little, like, divider things that my wife had built. That was basically our filing cabinet. And I had all of this financial docs and all of this stuff, and I was like, I've got. I've got to have an IRA or something from an old job around here somewhere. And I just digging through, and it was like one of those scenes in one of the movies where they just have papers strewn about all over the floor, and it's, like, covering the floor. And my wife got home, and I was like, I found. I found $3,000 in my old job's IRA and we're going to get it. And bitcoin has crashed. It went down like, 60% today. And she was like, what is wrong with you?
We literally were like, wigging out. And everybody was like, I could sell this. I could do this. I got rid of our extra car during that whole span. I didn't get to sell it until it was like, back up to, like, five or six. But we put everything I paid, you know, fees and taxes on this thing. I dumped it into bitcoin, everything that we could. And it was just so funny because it was like four days of everybody losing their minds trying to buy bitcoin as fast as we could. If Michael Saylor, Flash crashed the market and did that, you didn't. You have no idea, anybody who's been here for a couple of years, how freaking excited we would be the idea that I could get bitcoin again at $40,000. We went to 108.
[01:10:06] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:10:06] Speaker A: Just because Saylor made a bad decision is amazing.
[01:10:10] Speaker B: It's God help if all of. All of us that are homeowners, if that happens, and they put interest rates back down to like, 2.8%. Like, I got on my mortgage right now because I would extract the. Out of that equity at that interest rate. I. I probably wouldn't know where it is now. But you like this one. So it was one of those crashes. It wasn't quite that deep. I ended up getting like, half a bitcoin for it. But I. When I was. When I was in my shitcoin phase, I also mined that. I mined coins. And I found this. I think it was a Zcash wallet or something on one of my PCs. And I opened it up and it had done kind of well since I had mined it. And there was like 3, 500 bucks worth of Z cash in that wallet. And I'm like, oh, bitcoin, baby. And just instantly it was like about like half a coin in one transaction while that market was down. And I think that, you know, mining might not be the right term, but it's the term we're stuck with from Satoshi because it's really more verifying transactions. But I guess that doesn't work for people's minds.
But I think minted is a good word, too. And I think that we get minted in bitcoin isn't bitcoins, it's maxis. And it's these cycles riding through at least one full cycle, all the way through, coming out the other end. And whether you're stupid or not, it doesn't matter. If you go through it and you don't come out with zero and you watch it come back, you're inoculated for real. And then the more times that happens to you, the more impervious you can care about this like when it hit 107 recently and the only reason I knew about it is somebody in a live stream that wasn't about bitcoin told me, otherwise I wouldn't even have known it happened. I don't care about the price. It's not, I'm not in my time focused frame yet where I care. Like I'm old, but I ain't that old yet. I. This is, this is forever money for me. So I don't care what it does tomorrow other than the more it goes down, the more I can buy. That's. That's the only thing I care about.
[01:12:03] Speaker A: Yeah. Yeah.
And there's just in the idea of like big players, like going to sell. It's like, it's like one of those things like to not recognize what you're comparing against.
[01:12:19] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:12:20] Speaker A: And to understand that you're saying, I mean, China could crash the bond market tomorrow.
[01:12:26] Speaker B: Sure.
[01:12:27] Speaker A: Like just eviscerate it. So what? In fact, that would be worse than what was going on in bitcoin. And the bond market would have such a massive loss of faith, like a staggering loss of faith because it's supposed to be this incredibly safe thing that it is the structure, the core and is the foundation of all of our money. And yet nobody's going to lose faith in bitcoin if it takes a 50% plummet. Nobody that actually knows anything about bitcoin, it'll be the same stupid people who already don't have faith in it. They're like, see, I told you so.
But bitcoin does this all the time.
Nobody's going to think like, oh, foundationally something is wrong. It's like, oh, business as usual.
Do this again. Let's do this again sometime. It'd be wonderful.
[01:13:16] Speaker B: This is one of your posts from Reese, your reposts. Anyway. China's 10 year yield.
[01:13:21] Speaker A: Oh yeah, I saw that.
[01:13:26] Speaker B: That's hard.
[01:13:28] Speaker A: They're all going, man, they're gonna have to print again. I don't. It's an interesting political situation in the US Because I think there's going to be a lot of pressure.
I still, I'm still inclined to think that there will not be any fundamental change because it's too systemic, it's too built into like how things work.
And that we're more likely to just kind of have like the biggest branches cut off that we've had in a long time. And. But then, you know, every bush, you cut the branches off any bush or any tree and it grows back, you.
[01:13:59] Speaker B: Know, bigger and thicker and heavier.
[01:14:03] Speaker A: A lot of times it does, yeah.
[01:14:04] Speaker B: It's called pollarding. It's like, it's a way to create infinite wood. Resource is we do this in permaculture. You take a tree, a pollard is high and the compass is low and about, you know, head high at the nice working height, you just take the whole top of the tree off, and instead of one tree root coming back, it branches out and it actually creates this gnarly look to it. And that's basically the plant stem cells. And it starts multiplying itself and becoming stronger because you're growing back, but you already have the root system of the giant tree.
And that in a way is a lot like Bitcoin. Like, the harder you hit it and the more it sustains, the more people gain faith in it, and the more people to gain faith in it, the harder it is to attack. And that's where it really is like the, you know, like rogue or something in X Men where you. You go at them and then they take your power from you. And the harder you hit them, the stronger they become. That's. That's really how this all works. And it's. I think a big part of why people have a hard time with this is there's almost nobody alive right now that lived with true hard money as a standard.
[01:15:10] Speaker A: Yeah.
[01:15:10] Speaker B: You would have had to been alive in 1912.
Which if you are still around, good for you.
[01:15:16] Speaker A: And understood what that meant in 1912.
[01:15:19] Speaker B: Right. And understood what it meant. So you would have been.
[01:15:21] Speaker A: Can't be like 2 years old in 1912 that I mean anything.
[01:15:24] Speaker B: Even if you were Alive Prior to 71, many people were. You were already on a flight fractional gold system and we had already winnowed it away. 64, they took away the silver and. And they demonetized silver. And I think what another thing is, people don't realize that was a default in 1964. The Coinage act was a default on the American money system. 33 was a default. 1913 was a default. The crime of 1873 was a default. These were defaults on the monetary system. But at least if you go back into that time, the idea that you could save your way into wealth at retirement was a thing. Right. You didn't have to risk your money. You could just keep whatever you didn't spend and keep piling it up and maybe do some investing, maybe do some lending at an interest rate that was reasonable. Maybe invest it in a business. But you didn't have to go out and buy an index fund to become wealthy. When we had hard money, you could store the value there and over a lifetime it accumulated. Then whatever was left after you died, you give it and your family could keep doing it. No one alive has experienced that until now.
So it's foreign. Like it. What I say about bitcoin investing is that the problem with it is the same reason people can't understand the fractional monetary system. The concept is so simple. The mind is like, no, that, that can't, it can't be that simple. The whole rules are end every day with more sass than you started with. No coining the dollar is currency. Bitcoin is money. Don't sell it.
Done. That's it. And, and when you tell somebody that, they're like, no, I want to buy your 375 page eBook. That gives me the super solution to becoming wealthy or something in my underwear at my kitchen table. Like they want it to be something complicated. But while the technology is complicated, while shock256 is complicated, etc. The things you need to do is simple. It's simple because how well did you know your grandparents and kind of like what was their time? They came up in really well.
[01:17:34] Speaker A: And in fact they had a lot of habits that went through the Great Depression.
[01:17:37] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:17:38] Speaker A: And stuff. Like they had the tendency to save plates and save money.
Like, like all of those sorts of things. So it was, and it's interesting to see that dichotomy, you know.
[01:17:49] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:17:49] Speaker A: Like they never, they never grew up in a world of zero percent consumer debt that like, oh, get zero percent for 12 months on a car. You know, it was absolutely insane. And you think about it. All you have to do is realize if you look at your own framing and like what you would rent out to somebody else for 0%, you realize how absurd it is that it's only because you're chasing new money and that you can turn around and sell it to somebody else and somebody else can get the debt at a lower interest that any of this makes any sense. Like there, there's no economic sense whatsoever. Think about it at a 1% interest rate that would you loan. We loan corporations, banks, get it from the Fed. 1%, 2%. Imagine that in the context and we're talking about billions and trillions of dollars.
[01:18:33] Speaker B: Yes.
[01:18:35] Speaker A: Like, like country buying amounts of money at this rate.
Find one thing that you own, one thing that you would own that you would rent to somebody at 1%.
[01:18:50] Speaker B: Agree.
[01:18:50] Speaker A: Your lawnmower, your 2500 three thousand dollar lawnmower to somebody else at 1%. That means $25 a year.
[01:19:02] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah.
[01:19:03] Speaker A: Like that's crazy. You would never. It costs you $25, it costs you $50 to mow your lawn once to hire somebody else and you're going to give your lawnmower away and at the end of the year it's going to be worth fifteen hundred dollars because they've mowed with it all year long. And you're going to take $2 and 5 cent a month for that. That's what you're going to rent it for. Money is resources. Money is a reflection of the resources that they have available to them. They could that, that corporation that got a trillion, I mean you got a billion dollar loan could literally just go out and buy.
What was it? 400000 lawnmower. 400 million lawnmowers.
[01:19:50] Speaker B: Whatever it is. Yeah.
[01:19:52] Speaker A: They could literally just go buy that you're giving. They are basically getting the rents of that many lawnmowers for 1% or they.
[01:20:04] Speaker B: Can at 1% and loan it back to the government that created it at 2%.
[01:20:10] Speaker A: And you know what they do? They do exactly that. They buy up a whole bunch of lawnmowers and then they rent them back out at a price that actually makes some sort of sense. And what happens is they own the whole world. They buy all the houses, they buy all the land, they buy all the cars, they buy everything. So they own the structure of the world and everyone rents or mortgages it from them. And it has nothing to do with the fact that they created more value than everybody else. It's that they got preferential interest rates that are impossible unless you are printing money out of thin air. And suddenly they own everything. They're the, the banks are the biggest buildings in every single city. That's ridiculous. The banks don't make anything. They're an accounting thing.
[01:20:54] Speaker B: There's no literally even have a building. Honestly like what they do could be a giant bank could be run out of a building the size of my house.
[01:21:04] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah.
[01:21:06] Speaker B: There's no need for any. But I, I don't think they were small.
[01:21:09] Speaker A: They were small.
[01:21:11] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:21:11] Speaker A: They used to be.
[01:21:12] Speaker B: Yeah. I don't think there'll be many physical banking locations left in another 10 years.
[01:21:17] Speaker A: Yeah.
[01:21:18] Speaker B: Because not because they're going to Become, you know, saints or something and go away.
[01:21:22] Speaker A: I think there will be, they'll just be very, very different. Just because physical security around keys and hardware like I think the custodian model and the idea of multi sig and federations and proof of reserves and all of these things. I think, I think there's everybody's like oh, what about retail payments? Like I think there's an ocean of like a 50 trillion dollar market just in. Not as in like you could pay $50 trillion in fees. I mean there will be 50 to $100 trillion lot like tied up in systems of proof of reserves of multi sig setups of distributing security so that there's no physical risk and there's no kidnapping risk and there's no I got a car accident and I have my keys in my pocket risk. I think there's such a unique and unbelievably incredible technology and being able to legitimately split up sovereign keys and have time locks and have, you know, tying a subsidiary payment network to an exact amount of bitcoin somewhere is wild. There are so many things that you can do with this. And the fact that this is an open and permissionless network like lightning is such a great example is. And I brought this up with Clint when I was on the show with Clint talking or debating with Steve. Is that to fail to recognize how insane it is that literally for like the last seven years in bitcoin I have used tons of custodial services just out of figure, just out of playing with them, you know, like custodial wallets or this, that or the other. Like all these little tools. I had a little zap thing in my telegram. Every single one of them was owned and operated, was run by someone that I personally know. Okay, like literally a friend. And I would just be like yo utxo, like how's the server going? You know, like doing. It's like, oh well, I'll build your, I'll do your telegram thing.
That is not even remotely possible in a financial, in a fiat environment. It is an entirely permissioned system.
Just, just that alone, I hope can make people realize that we have genuinely moved from the three broadcast companies to the Internet layer. Yeah, sure. Not everybody's going to run their own website, but you can have anyone run a website and you can get a microservice or you can a 14 year old in their garage has a permissionless global system and payments network to build whatever the hell they want to build and to provide whatever service completely without permission to anyone that they want to provide it to. I am able to run Lightning services for people in my family. That's crazy. That is insane. And we are still so early. We still have so many other things that we can build on top of this. We're just barely scratching the surface with where this can go well.
[01:24:26] Speaker B: And I think that there's also even some of the things that are more corporate or whatever. Like you know, Primal has a native wallet now. Yeah, yeah. I think people should self custody. I'm a huge advocate. I've been that forever. But if you have 50 bucks in a Primal wallet, I don't give a fuck. I don't care. I don't care any more than if you had, you know, ten five dollar bills in your front pocket of your jeans. Could you lose it? Yes. Will it alter your life if you lose it? No. Does the government really give a about your $50 unless it's on a, a W2 or something? No, I don't give a that. It's, I don't care about any of that. It's KYC, whatever. It's 50 bucks, 5 bucks, whatever. It's zaps flying around on Noster. What I say is when it gets up to a number where you start to say like I'm gonna hurt if this money's gone. Take most of it off and move it to something you have custody over and we're. I, I.
There is this purists among us I guess like this purist niche within the maxi niche of everything needs to be no Kyc. Nothing can be collective at all. Everything needs to be independent. Like and it's like they hate the ETFs, right? They hate that. That's awful. They hate government doing a reserve or whatever. It's like wait a minute. You have been talking about bitcoin hyper bitcoinization for 15 years you've been talking about this. What did you think you were talking about? If you have the best monetary instrument there is, you think you just like.
[01:25:56] Speaker A: Stop people you didn't like from getting in it. Like that's the whole point of bitcoin. Like how did you not realize that you weren't going to be able to say no to an etf? You weren't going to be able to say no to the United States government buying it. The hyper bitcoinization means that everybody you don't like is also going to be here.
[01:26:15] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:26:16] Speaker A: And if you thought bitcoin wasn't going to survive that, that the ETFs are the death knoll of Bit like, that's it, the bong. Ring the bell, we're done. Because the ETF showed up at it.
[01:26:26] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:26:27] Speaker A: Why were you even here?
[01:26:29] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:26:30] Speaker A: How did you ever believe in bitcoin? If you thought all it needed was an ETF and then it was dead, that was it, we're done.
[01:26:36] Speaker B: You have the conversation like, okay, so do you believe that bitcoin's better money than a dollar dollar? Yes. Are you opposed to the dollar having a dollar etf? No.
I don't even know what to say next. Right. Like, what did you think they were going to do? What? There's an ETF for nickel.
There's an ETF that specifically invests in things that are for diabetics.
[01:26:56] Speaker A: Right.
[01:26:57] Speaker B: There's an ETF for. I don't care what you come up with. I guarantee you there's an ETF for it. The reason I was pro ETF is one, I knew it would work out in the end to make us wealthier. But two is just on principle. If you can have an ETF for nickel, then you should be able to have an ETF for the most verifiable asset on the planet because you know it's going to be paper bitcoin. We know the addresses, folks. Did you see the thing that came out like two weeks ago? BlackRock moved, which really their custodian, Coinbase moved their Bitcoin to a bunch more addresses. Of course they said wallets. I'm like, those are not wallets. They're. Or addresses. But they basically split it up in a bunch more addresses. Well, that would be intelligent. Right? You don't want to hold 20, you know, $200 billion or whatever it is.
[01:27:43] Speaker A: I'm one key and one.
[01:27:45] Speaker B: Yeah. Like, that's like, of course you. Of course they did. But then the conspiracy started flowing out of it. Right. You know, it's like these people don't know how an ETF works. BlackRock doesn't know. Well, I'm sure BlackRock owns some Bitcoin, but that ETF itself, most of that's not black rock's money.
[01:28:00] Speaker A: Yeah. That's them saying that's. That's God. That's one of those arguments they just gives me is they say, and this is one of the things that they said all like during the block size wars and all this stuff is that like, oh, well, the miners will just not go and you'll be screwed.
[01:28:15] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:28:16] Speaker A: And. And it was just like, do you really think it's so simple? This, this is how flatly and easily this works. That there won't be a response to. This is your whole model just built on the fact that all the people will just kind of throw their hands up. It doesn't cost me anything to run a node and just wait. You don't realize how easy it is to not follow them, to basically call their bluff. And that's exactly what we did. Okay, go mine a shitcoin if you want to do that. And all of the nodes of the network stay on our network. You can't sell your new forked coin to anybody and you have hundreds of thousands of dollars of cost every 10 minutes. It costs us nothing to wait. I will sit around and wait. And in fact, you say we don't even use it for retail payments anyway. So what are you taking from us? We're all just holding it in cold storage anyway. I'm just going to sit around, I'm going to keep my cold storage on the rules that I want and on the network I want. And I'll buy some more Bitcoin to whichever miner decides to mine on my chain. If you think that the miners are going to be the ones that denote and not the network of people who accept it who say, sure, I'll buy your coin. Like, it's the same thing with BlackRock is they say like, well, BlackRock now has all of these coins. It's like, dude, they don't. They're allocated to other people. They own it on behalf of literally millions and millions of people in the United States, their retirements and equity funds and hedge funds and all of these things that are allocated to this. So, okay, so BlackRock has, let's say they. I don't even know how many they have. There's a crap ton of coins, right?
[01:29:59] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:30:00] Speaker A: So the, the theory goes that BlackRock is going to create a client in which they fork off to utterly like, to fundamentally change the rules of the network. And that when they do this, they're going to force everybody else to do it because they are going to. They're going to steal all of the coins for the millions of users which their ETF is legally obligated to, to hold for them, and they are going to dump it on Bitcoin, they're going to dump it on Fidelity, who owns their own. They're going to dump it on Grayscale, who owns their own, and that they're going to completely change it. We're all going to have to shift over to blackrock Coin and nobody's going to do anything. Like, there's going to Be no response to this whatsoever.
[01:30:50] Speaker B: Like, they don't really own anyway their clients.
[01:30:55] Speaker A: Think through it. We can't add ctv. We couldn't raise the block size without five years of vicious screaming and, and shit throwing and spamming and ddosing and fake nodes and fake this and just attacks outright. And you think BlackRock is going to take over and everybody's just going to be like, damn it, we had a really good run.
BlackRock did it. Now we're. Now we're. God, what are we going to do? Blackrock coin. I just like, think, just think about it. The utter shitstorm. BlackRock would go out of business.
That would literally kill BlackRock. They would get ddosed and I would participate. So bad. Like, it would. It would be utterly insane. It would be glorious, actually, to watch that unfold if they literally thought that they were arrogant enough that they could do that. Part of me just wants to go give it a shot, you know, man, like, like, more power to you, buddy. Come on, let's. Let's take over Bitcoin BlackRock. I have faith in you because I really hope BlackRock just ends up poor. Like, I hope the whole system crushes underneath them. And that would be the best decision that they could make to ensure that that happens. So go right ahead. You fork Bitcoin and you dump those coins because there's nothing we can do, buddy. There's nothing you can fork.
[01:32:21] Speaker B: Anything they want. Anytime they want to fork it, they can fork right off. Right. Like now here's something too. Like, it's not like ETFs are a place that holds you forever. So what I've got is a tool that was built on Dune. And this is ETF inflows since inception earlier this year. And if you look at the bottom of that graph and you look at the purple, that's grayscale.
And you can see Grayscale's holdings have gone down dramatically.
[01:32:46] Speaker A: Yeah.
[01:32:46] Speaker B: Since then because they've kept their fees high. Now I'm not going to pick on them because I know what they did. They did math. Math. And they said we could lose 80 of our customers and still be ahead. So we're not going to drop our fees with everybody else and we'll see how long that works out for them.
So far it has. The math works out that if they had cut their fees, it wouldn't really be that great. They also had a huge dump in the beginning because people were holding it till conversion.
[01:33:10] Speaker A: Yeah, they already had. They just had so many people trapped. Trapped. And there was going to be a big dump anyway.
[01:33:14] Speaker B: So my point is look at. There's not like there's not other options there. There's a lot of places taking a lot of volume. It's not only Melody has custody their.
[01:33:22] Speaker A: Own the whole time. Yeah, Fidelity has been awesome.
[01:33:27] Speaker B: Have, have you heard this one? Don't sell your. Your Bitcoin to BlackRock.
I. I don't even understand. Like what do you mean don't sell my Bitcoin to BlackRock. I'm not gonna sell my bitcoin to anybody. But what are you talking about? Like, you know, or don't sell your bitcoin a sailor or whatever. Like I. Yeah, it's. It hurts my brain.
[01:33:46] Speaker A: If you want to save in better money and you want 20,000 sats for free right now it's about 20 bucks at a hundred thousand dollars of bitcoin check out fold. Every time I swipe this card, I get 0.5%. Sometimes one, sometimes even one and a half percent. I can get two, three, five, even 10% on gift cards with major merchants between the roundups, the gift cards, the auto stacking, the sats back on every single swipe fold literally does all of the work for me. And it is denominated in bitcoin. And I have more savings just by using this card than like 90% of the United States normal consumer. I've got a referral link for you right here. Shout out to fold for sponsoring my work and honestly being the most important service for my being on a bitcoin standard.
[01:34:38] Speaker B: So what Hogus is asking. Let me find this again, hold on.
He told me how to pronounce his name and I still don't know how to do it. I couldn't do it with him. They're telling me how to say that.
[01:34:52] Speaker A: Genesis.
[01:34:53] Speaker B: Yeah, he. What he's talking about I think is Quantum.
[01:34:56] Speaker A: Oh, is Genesis the name of their quantum chip or whatever that people did?
[01:35:01] Speaker B: Can you talk about that for a minute and just roll for a second? I'll be right back. I'm not gone.
[01:35:05] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, no worries. So the quantum thing is the most frustrating thing because I have, I have tried so hard to steal man and try to find something like really concrete about quantum. And it is the most hyped up, jargon filled bunch of crap I have ever, ever had to dig into. Like it's worse than most like white papers for shitcoins in my opinion. And I would. I've even talked with people on social and then ended up in DMS with them trying to get somebody to find me something concrete. And I've gone this rap down this rabbit hole a few times. So the whole thing of like Google, like did a computation that would take a conventional computer the entirety of like the history of the universe and all the energy of the universe in order to do this thing is a specifically, a benchmark created specifically for, for the way quantum computers work today in order to do a computation that is difficult to do on conventional computers. And it is not. They've actually made the same claim before. The last time they had a big like, step up in quantum, which was like, I think it was like five years ago. They had like 40 qubits or 45 qubits. Whatever it was is that they did the same thing and that no conventional computer could do it. It would take them 100 million years. And then literally in that span, we actually found a way for conventional computers to do that computation because it's just not like they've, they've basically created the environment for their experiment so this thing can pass with flying colors. But there's, there's no indication that this. They have so many problems with error correction. They have so many problems with scaling this thing up to like, basically I think they've got like 105 qubits now for the computational density and for a real computation for like actually putting in SHA256 or. Well, ECDSA is really the thing is to put in a cryptographic algorithm. The level of complexity, the level of parallelism and the level of error correction is so, I mean, we're talking orders of magnitude on top of orders of magnitude out of the realm. We're talking about millions of qubits needed. And we've moved from like 40 to 105 in like five or seven years. So it's like, I think it's a doubling every five years is the expectation right now, which puts us at a million in a very, very long time. Like, yeah, 50 years maybe.
And trying desperately to get something concrete out of it. I remember I was talking with a quantum, like maximalist, I guess is the term to use somebody who's certain and also very like knowledgeable and understands theories. He did a pretty good job of explaining it. I kept saying, like, but what is it done that's like practical, like, don't give me some like randomized, like function test that's like perfect for quantum computers. And then just tell me it can do it better than conventional. Like, you're telling me that crypto is broken. Like, give me something that quantum can't do that. It can now do that is specific to conventional computers. And how well does it perform? He says, well it factored a semi prime number and if you know it factored numbers, then that's, that's the problem. Right. Like factoring numbers is the quantum, I mean is the encryption problem is how do you get a semi prime number and how do you factor it quickly?
[01:38:46] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:38:47] Speaker A: And I said okay, well that, that's crazy. Okay, that, that is, that is significant. Can you tell me where that was? And I've dug through like one. I don't even know Countless, countless articles that were making pointing to this claim. None of them had a source. None of them have the source. It's, God, it's so infuriating when you cannot find what people where the thing is coming from that people are talking about. And he finally sent it to me and I went digging through and they tried so hard not to say what it was. And finally when I found out the big breakthrough and the thing that's going to break cryptography because you have 256bit numbers that you can factor. The number that they factored with a quantum, with a. One of the most advanced quantum computers was like the number 17 because two digits.
And I was like, and the hours, the hours I wasted to find yes is so infuriating. I just, I could not believe that I was like this can't be real, this can't be the thing that you're telling me is the threat. Like let's, let's get to, let's get to like factoring like a digit, three digits before we talk about factoring with like 64. You know, it's exhausting.
[01:40:06] Speaker B: And there's nothing that says you have to maintain the level of encryption you have that we can't expand that. So what I've heard the most informed people say is it's easier to defend from quantum to develop than to develop it.
[01:40:17] Speaker A: So making it resistant tech like that's not even, you know, when it becomes clear that we're factoring 20 digit numbers.
[01:40:27] Speaker B: Then we can start worrying would be.
[01:40:28] Speaker A: So crazy in comparison to what the capabilities are now. Well, okay, well then let's get the best quantum algorithm, you know and we can put that in the signature and voila.
[01:40:39] Speaker B: And then you'll need a quantum asic.
[01:40:41] Speaker A: Yeah.
[01:40:44] Speaker B: I mean if you develop a computer that good at it, the most profitable thing to do with it would be to participate. I mean that's the other side of it.
[01:40:53] Speaker A: And I will say it's not something to Ignore. No, it's not something to ignore. But be, be sober about it. You know, like everything is, everything is hype. And also remember that tech is desperate for funding. They, they push the whole I've got AI in my tool really bad. Like they want, they've been on the cusp of so many dramatic changes in the market that they want the next thing, big thing to be literally a huge thing again. And so they're looking for it and so they hype up everything to be the next thing that's going to get them 100 billion in funding or a trillion in government contracts, you know, all this stuff. So everything's gonna sound great, but what'd you do with it?
[01:41:32] Speaker B: That's the other thing.
[01:41:33] Speaker A: What was the computation? Explain that to me.
[01:41:36] Speaker B: That's an age thing too. Like were you old enough to be cognizant of what was going on through the dot com boom? And then you've seen this multiple iterations of this dynamic thing is going to change the world as we know it. And then it comes in, it really kind of wants, it doesn't, it just doesn't happen. I mean there, there's certain things that if you watch, I bet you can make a graph, somebody probably has that shows over time the most common words used in VC proposals and then go back and look at that graph and see how many of those things have really become what anybody said they were going to become. Right. I'm sure you remember this. This one was all in the crypto space, right? Blockchain, not bitcoin blockchain. That was in every VC proposal. My own investment advisor was spouting it to me and I'm like, we'll see.
And no, because blockchains are contentious. Blockchains are hard. Blockchains are slow.
There's a reason you have.
[01:42:32] Speaker A: It's a global auction. I just don't understand. Like it's crazy that people don't look at how it works and then not stop and think like, this is not a, this is not a payment network. This is not Visa. And you can't make this Visa. So why is it ask, why is it succeeding if it isn't Visa? It clearly isn't. If you have a global auctioning system, a global bidding war going on for space in this chain, for these transactions to be done, and it does not apply to what you are thinking, it applies to that. It just, it's not the, the same model and it has massive sets of trade offs and different actions and how it behaves and the fact that you can have weather. Like imagine if like payments just started not going through on Christmas. Like as you're buying Christmas presents.
[01:43:24] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:43:25] Speaker A: Because too many people are trying to buy Christmas presents, you would just stop using whatever that thing is. It does not work for retail.
And. Yeah, but I don't know, it. I guess it just sounds good. I mean, people would put blockchain in their company title that had nothing to do with it, and their stock would shoot up like 20. You know, it just. So it is what it is.
[01:43:49] Speaker B: Yeah.
You know, and there is a certain level of technological threat to every. Every form of money. Right. Like, what really killed gold was one, an intention to keep kill gold. But it was also that gold doesn't move. Gold is not frictionless. It's not weightless. It doesn't go at the speed of light. You have to trust somebody to hold it for you. If you get beyond a few coins and even it's so valuable that there's a. There's a fractionalization problem. Like if I want to buy something from you that's relatively cheap, I need silver. I can't use the. You know, a gram of gold is not. It's not worth producing. It takes more money to produce a gram of gold as a certified gram than it's worth. So it doesn't make sense. So when we got into a point with computers where we could send electronic payments, unless the trusted party really could be trusted, and it never can, especially if there's no option. If there's one trusted party, you're really not going anywhere.
The dollar and the modern Western currencies defeated gold. And we're able to function as a fiat system. And people say it doesn't work. It worked for 50 years. It's still here. You get paid in it, most likely, while you're saying that. And there's. There's a finite limit to it, but there was a technological thing that crushed gold, at least on some level. And it makes me think of. I've been listening to the latest book. You, You've. You've done the narration on the audio side for Lynn Alden's Broken Money. And you were talking about the stones, Right, the rice stones. And how when these, these people. I remember who it was, some explorer finds this island and like they're going like 200 miles in a canoe to get this stone to mint these. To make these stones that represent money on this island. And since they had better technology, they could just start cranking out stones and they basically destroyed the monetary worth of these stones to a large degree and basically enslaved the island by a technological capability by breaking the money. When we talk about quantum as a threat, it's that same angle of attack. Right. So anybody who has a monetary system, the most important thing is can you defend it?
And I think that's actually the brilliance of Bitcoin. The, the consensus model and the difficulty adjustment. Those two things together make it highly defendable. And when people say, well, it won't be around forever, I, I don't know, I can't say that someday the sun will eat the earth. I'm sure it won't survive that unless we're interplanetary with Elon by then.
[01:46:20] Speaker A: But when I. Cryptography does historically have a shelf life. Yeah, it does tend to like have huge shifts. But that's why, you know, existential issues will always have, will be the only thing that we have consensus on making changes for, I believe.
And, but I completely agree. And you know, is it a liberty? Cast says it changes the nature of computing. I also like, I mean it does in a sense with so many things, but it also doesn't in the sense of a lot, a lot of conventional computation is that there's plenty of things that quantum computers will never do because it doesn't make any sense to have a quantum computer do. It's specific types of computation that quantum computers can actually do when you have vast, huge complex models with lots of different outputs. But because of that they also have a, not only do they have a staggeringly high cost to actually to actually be built and have an infrastructure for, but they only are applicable to a very small subset of types of computation anyway. So there's a huge, huge like imbalance and I think that's why it's going to be Bitcoin.
But I think that's why like, even if it, as it happens or as, you know, progress in quantum computing, clearly there are quantum computations regardless of error correction. And all the problems of creating a bajillion different states and scaling that actually pick the right one, so to speak, is that it does exist and it will probably be applicable to something. But the question is, is it a trillion dollar application and does anybody actually think that the investment will break ecdsa? Because nobody's going to make the investment if they don't. And I think that's why these things are so overhyped, is because they know that if it's not feasible in the short term, it's going to take 10 times longer. Like, like things speed up as you get closer to where it actually becomes applicable. And I still just think it's a type of computation that just is not broadly applicable. We're not going to be running normal software. I'm never going to be doing this podcast over a quantum computer. Like, there's zero reason for it. It's not going to be better at making a simple connection and doing linear computation to run some sort of a process.
[01:48:52] Speaker B: This way, Guy. Let's say that I magically waved my wand here and I made a quant, a super quantum computer that can break any encryption out there. And I did this and it appeared in front of you. Are you going to hack the Bitcoin network or the United States government, the Russian government, the Japanese government, the Chinese government, Bank of America, Citibank? Like, where would you go with that capability first? Would you go after Bitcoin or the entire banking system?
[01:49:19] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. It's, it's, it really will be for like, like breaking into the communications of anything that it can get into. But I also just think the, the Runway is just not at all what people think it is. And, and again, I'm not a quantum expert. It's just something that annoys the crap out of me every time I, I try to get like some base of knowledge in it.
[01:49:47] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:49:48] Speaker A: And it, I hate stuff when people act like it's not explainable.
[01:49:53] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:49:54] Speaker A: And they hide behind the inability to understand it as if that means it's important. And if that means that like it's super, like, it's like only smart people can believe. It's like, nah, dude, everything is understandable. Like, you got the same monkey brain as I do. If you can't explain it, then I'm less likely to believe anything is actually there.
[01:50:14] Speaker B: There. You know, I think there's analogies too with Quantum to like LLMs, right. AI, like chat B, chat, GBT. You can ask it about anything, but it's. A lot of times it's wrong. Even when it believes that it's right.
[01:50:27] Speaker A: You'll even say intelligence, it's not intelligent. You actually understand. That was another rabbit hole that I went down and trying to understand how it works. It pulls it's. It is much closer to a translation and compression algorithm.
[01:50:40] Speaker B: It's exactly what it is.
[01:50:41] Speaker A: It is not actually making decisions. And the fact that it sound like I, I.
[01:50:47] Speaker B: But I guess what I'm saying is like, if you think about quantum, like if you, if you purposely build a quantum computing system to do a certain thing, it can be really good at the one thing you built it to do if you make it a generalist, it's not so great. Same with an LLM. Like if you get a bunch of herpetologists together and they develop it, an LLM specifically dedicated to amphibians and Raphaels because that's what all these guys know is amphibians and reptiles and that's what they care about. It will blow away Chad GPT's ability to tell you about herpetology subjects. The more typecast you make the thing, the more you specialize it, the better it does the thing. It's like we teach about livestock and you have I want a meat chicken and an egg layer. Well then you want two different chickens. Because if it's a generalist, it's okay at both, but it's not great at either. But if you buy a dead, like it's been bred to lay eggs, it'll crank out eggs. And if you want it to grow fast and be a meat chicken, it's probably not going to do that. Great as an egg layer. Right. So you want something specific built. So to do this you have to, you're going to spend all this money to build a computer that is specifically designed to break the Bitcoin network rather than, I don't know, topple global governments.
[01:51:58] Speaker A: And the thing to understand too is that that principle is so important. I love that you hit on that is the idea of specialization in the hardware versus generalization. And I genuinely, from what I've dug into, it seems to be like way, way more important for quantum than it even is for generic computation or traditional computation, so to speak. Is that the only way I see, like if quantum computers ever get powerful enough to actually break ECDSA to find the private key relevant to a public key and they go for, you know, the 30% of coins that are still locked up in, you know, one one pk, blah, blah, you know, whatever address is the old satoshi stash, you know.
[01:52:47] Speaker B: Yeah.
[01:52:48] Speaker A: What they will, what it will do or how we will know and when it will be broken will be. This is. I'll go ahead and make this prediction. I don't know what kind of decades long timeline we're talking about here. I did literally could still be 30 to 50 years. Like I don't know, but it will be a single billion dollar. Well in today's dollars. Quantum computer that the chip has hardwired like the chip itself can only run the process of that singular public key of a single address and it can do absolutely nothing else. And it's going to take a 15 year investment. And it's going to be the biggest. It's going to be the most insane thing. And nobody else will be at risk because it will literally take another billion dollars and another entirely custom directed at your public key, which nobody's even using anymore at your public key quantum computer. That's just. It will literally require one of the most ridiculous investments at the highest possible risk of like, is this even going to work? That is the only way I see it happening. And I just don't think there's going to be this huge leap to like, oh, I could just stick anybody's public key in here. And it's like, here's your private. You know, like, it just.
[01:54:08] Speaker B: Too many movies not going to have a little box. And he comes into the thing and he sticks it on top of the computer and it breaks the encryption in five seconds. Like, that's. Yeah, that's a nice story. So is, you know, quantum. Quantum drives and slipstream drives on Star Trek and whatever. But that's also just a story. And the mind. I. I also think that there's a lot of people that are spouting that they just hate bitcoin. So they're just looking for something, anything.
[01:54:32] Speaker A: And then sometimes it breaks through to people, you know. Yeah, yeah. It's just like, well, you know, when your other arguments feel flatter and they don't, it's like, oh, well, it'll drop the price.
[01:54:44] Speaker B: Okay's picture is going to show and laugh at you and disintegrate the code or something. That's what shifts. Yeah, yeah. 21.55. I'll be dead. I don't give a. All right. I don't even think it's gonna happen. But I just. I mean, that's. If it did. I. I promise you, no matter how much I do to take care of myself, I will not be around in 2155. I won't be here. You know, like it, you know, I don't know unless they make a quantum jack or I can download my brain. And I think that'll happen before quantum breaks Bitcoin. I really do.
[01:55:17] Speaker A: Probably.
[01:55:18] Speaker B: Yeah, you'll be able.
[01:55:19] Speaker A: I think we'll have enough of a Runway that it just won't. Like, we'll just update. Well, yeah, you will actually soft fork the signatures and you know, like how it.
I don't see it as being when. When computation becomes that. We're literally talking about a time in which computation is so low cost, it wouldn't matter that our public key system is 10 times the size, the data hog, and the weight of all of these things.
And it would necessarily mean that we've been building layers and layers on top of this thing and we have all this other stuff. Well, yeah, okay, then it makes economic sense to actually make that change and take that, that trade off at the base layer. But I just don't think it's.
It. Stay, stay on it. You know, I think it's important that we keep looking at it and we keep making sure that there isn't some sort of a huge leap. But I do not see the trend. I do not see the indication that there is any giant leap around the corner and that any of our cryptographic is at risk of a quantum attack. And I couldn't, I totally could be.
[01:56:28] Speaker B: Wrong, but I put the same FUD category.
[01:56:30] Speaker A: I just don't see it.
[01:56:32] Speaker B: The same FUD category is. But when they turn off the Internet, man, because like, if, if the Internet is down globally, permanently, or even long.
[01:56:40] Speaker A: Term, the last guy's got no cash in his pocket. Who's saying that?
[01:56:44] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah. The last thing I'm gonna be worried about at that point is my Bitcoin. You know what I mean? Like, the world's burning and you're, you're, you know, like, do you think your 401k plan is going to be okay if that happens? And do you think the people that you're talking.
[01:56:58] Speaker A: Credit card or debit card.
[01:57:00] Speaker B: I love the day, right? Those people, they depend on the Internet more than I do.
[01:57:05] Speaker A: Yeah, right.
[01:57:06] Speaker B: They need it more than me. Like, that's like, if you don't do what I say, I'll shoot myself in the head. Bye. Right.
It makes me think of what was the, the funniest movies in the 70s. Blazing saddles, right? Everybody back up and I won't say the rest, right? Like pointing a gun at yourself and everybody like, going, oh, my God, don't. Do you pull the trigger, man.
[01:57:28] Speaker A: Go ahead.
[01:57:30] Speaker B: What is Adrian asking here? What are three top important things about Bitcoin that are misunderstood or unknown from your perspective?
I knew it'd be a good question.
[01:57:44] Speaker A: Definitely the intrinsic value utility one.
So deeply misunderstood.
And everybody is. People don't realize that money is its own utility.
Like, being a good money is massively valuable by itself. And it is not about the fact that you can do something else with it. Every consequence. One of the interesting things that you'll see in history, and you know, they talk about this with the Mises regression theorem and stuff, is that, oh, it has to have some other, you have to do some other thing with it. That is not the thing to learn from the history of money. Because one of the things you'll notice is that every single money in history had no common external utility. There was nothing about it that required it to be one particular thing or once, like glass beads, have been money. Seashell, like polished seashells have been money, like literal money for centuries. Those big giant rhinestone rocks, literally rocks that did nothing, were money for five centuries because they were double. The entire era of fiat more than doubled the entire era of fiat. Fiat money. Five centuries. It worked. Why? Because it worked as a good money.
It wasn't a payment network either. You couldn't move the damn things. They're huge. In fact, the only. The only. They would barely change hands. Most of them just sat where they were. They acted as an impenetrable or an irrefutable ledger as to who owned. What is it like? Well, this thing of big value sitting on top of this hill now belongs to somebody else. It's about making a record keeping system with high integrity. And not only, not only is the ability to hold value without counterparty risk, which is what money does. How do you have something that is radically neutral, that no matter how much value you put into it, it cannot be artificially diluted? That's it. That's the problem. Because then you can communicate that value with other people.
But the first the problem is how do you have money? How do you have value without counterparty risk? You can't do it with the house counterparty risk. It rots. It's hard to move. I mean, there's like a million different reasons why houses suck. Even though real estate has basically become the de facto money for the United States, like middle class and stuff, it has enormous trade offs. That problem is a 100 trillion dollar problem. Why? Because economies cannot exist without it.
That is the most important thing to understand. It's like saying that the, that the English language is not valuable because or is not not valuable because it has no utility. But like my website and this podcast is super valuable. None of those things exist without a language. Your website doesn't communicate anything without a language. My podcast doesn't communicate anything without a language. Your payment network doesn't communicate value without something of value. And how do you have something without counterparty risk that holds value? You have something scarce that has no rug pullability from anybody in the world, that has no counterparty risk, that has no master, that has no controller. Where the rules are simply the rules and there's nothing anybody can do about it. That is an unbelievable problem. And nothing on this earth exists in that capacity. A system of rules where the rules are just the rules and nobody can cheat them. That is the value that bitcoin brings. That is the value of sound money. That is why gold has been money for so long, because it's the one thing that was just so easy to verify. Okay, look at it. I got gold. And it's so incredibly difficult to fake it. All you have to do is weigh it 99% of the time and you can know that it's basically real. Granted, the counterfeiting has gotten better with time, but that's why it worked for so long in that capacity. But it does nothing. It does none of that in the digital world. Money is a utility in and of itself, and it is the biggest utility of any economic network. Because the biggest problem of an economic network is coordinating production and communicating value. If you do not have money, you cannot do that. Your corporate, your giant corporation that produces iPhones can't. Is completely worthless without a reliable monetary system to use.
[02:02:28] Speaker B: And I'd say factory that made iPhones with no humans, you still got to pay for energy.
[02:02:34] Speaker A: You have to pay for. You have to pay for all of your info.
[02:02:36] Speaker B: Ship the iPhone like zero way to.
[02:02:39] Speaker A: Do this without a market economy. Zero way. And the better market economy will be the one that has. That uses the sound money. And the. The sound money will be the one that has the highest integrity system of rules and the highest assurances that you own it. And that's it.
[02:02:56] Speaker B: And the lowest cost of ownership, too, right? That's the other side, right?
House. I can live in it, whatever. Yeah, but there's a. As a homeowner, let me tell you, there's a significant cost of ownership in owning a house. And as a former landlord that never wants to be one again, there's a significant cost of ownership that goes with being a landlord. And not everything is in your favor. And you know, somebody mentioned the value of real estate in the comments here. I said real estate has value in America to its level. Like everybody needs a place to live. That's valid, I'll give you that. But at its current level, where it's become like a de facto form of money, it only really has value because you can borrow against it. If you took away the ability to finance real estate with fiat debt against it, you would still have landlords, you would still have houses that wouldn't all go away, but you would have nothing like you do right now. There Wouldn't be guys talking about making money in your underwear, you know, by buying a house cheap and section 8 ing it through the government or something like. Like none of that shit works unless you can borrow against the property. Because people that make money in real estate do not make money with their own money.
That's one of the reasons I say Dave Ramsey has terrible financial advice and decent get out of debt advice, right? Because his whole thing with real estate is, well, you only do real estate as a landlord unless you pay cash for it, okay? That's how you go bankrupt, right? Like people that make money in real estate, they buy lots of real estate with other people's money and they don't care if half of it crashes. They don't give a. Because they got the other half with a cash flow formula against it and they're not paying for income tax on it because the whole thing's been rigged in that direction. But if you don't have a fiat system to go with fiat housing, which is what we have today, then it's worthless. Like, one of the big problems we have with housing is they build all these houses in a subdivision all at the same time, all out of cheap ass freaking softwood. Now there's no hardwood in construction anymore. It's all cheap ass dimensional lumber. If you look like somebody posted a picture today of like a. They're building like a 400, 000 new built house and they went in after the framers were done, before they put up the drywall. There's just shitty construction all through it. So they build this stuff. But when do they build this suburb? This whole, you know, this whole subdivision, all within about one or two years that whole subdivisions built. So when do all the houses start to fall apart? Within one to two years of each other. The whole neighborhood starts falling apart at the same time. That's fiat. My dad lives in a house that was built in 1893. He hasn't done a thing to it except put new carpet in and paint since the 80s. It's still there. I defy you to do that with anything built after 1965.
[02:05:34] Speaker A: This is something that I talk about in my latest 2Sats video.
[02:05:38] Speaker B: Yeah.
[02:05:39] Speaker A: That I just posted on Twitter and Noster.
[02:05:41] Speaker B: Is it the quadrant one?
[02:05:43] Speaker A: No, no, not the give a shit matrix. It's one I just did. When should I love it is when should I sell my bitcoin or when should I sell Bitcoin or whatever. And one of the things that I try to point out is that we think that the stock market. And we think that real estate and housing goes up in value every year. And that's another thing is like a whole bunch of people like bitcoin can't possibly go up in value every year. That doesn't make any sense. It's like, dude, you literally think you, you believe this story already. You think that your house is just supposed to go up in price every single year and that that does it indefinitely.
It's literally only money that's supposed to do that. Because society grows and because money is sound, less of it buys more stuff just because we make more stuff. It is literally the mirror image of how much society grows is the price level of the money, of the hardest money in society. But regardless, you think that that's true of the stock market and real estate, but somehow it can't be true of the monetary system. Like, you just, you've made a categorical mistake. What you're looking at are the two things that have simply replaced, replace the monetary premium because our money sucks.
But if you actually compare the S&P 500 over last 80 years, or I think I did it on a 60 year chart, and the median home price and the M2 money supply, they are the exact same chart. Like all three of them on a logarithmic chart, perfectly in line with each other. Stock market dips below and then goes up above and it goes back. But it's all just fluctuating around the money supply growth. And then the same thing with housing, except interestingly, houses start to taper off at the end and they actually stay below the growth in the money supply. And that is actually how you know that it is in fact, because like this, that's the thing that you feel. Just like you pointed out, your, your granddad's house or whatever built in 1890 is still standing. But you know, the houses that you see built today won't even make it until their mortgage is up.
[02:07:50] Speaker B: No, they won't.
[02:07:51] Speaker A: That is the actual value of the house is how long is this?
[02:07:56] Speaker B: The owner's gonna have to be constantly rebuilding the house. Right? Like that's. Yeah, that's the way that's gonna have to happen.
So, like, this is what I've said about spending bitcoin. All these folks that want us to spend our bitcoin, like it's so important to them that first of all, we don't have a, a spending shortage in America. We spend way more than we should. And becoming a bitcoiner makes you more greedy with your spending because it's you know, technically it's not deflationary, but in reality it ends up being deflationary. And so I know it's gonna be worth more tomorrow. So if you want me to go into my stack, you want me to plug in one of my hardware wallets and enter a code so I can actually send the bitcoin out of that cold storage, you have to do something. You either have to give me something that I absolutely, really, really need or at least highly, highly desire that I don't have any other way to get it, or you have to give me something that I look at, that it'll go and go, that will hold pace with the value of bitcoin. So if you could sell me a house that was, it came with no property taxes, it had a self healing roof.
And I knew for a fact that my great grandchild could live in that house. And I don't have to do anything. I'll think about it. But if you're going to sell me a house that 15 years from now is going to need more money put into it in work to make it still a house, that I'm going to pay for it today, I'm not giving you bitcoin for that. In other words, if you want hard money, you have to give me a hard asset. You have to either give me an appreciating asset or you have to give me at least, at bare minimum, a highly durable, serviceable asset that I'm going to use for a very long time. Because if it's not that, then my money's more durable than your asset and it's not a fair trade.
[02:09:44] Speaker A: Yeah, right.
[02:09:44] Speaker B: Or you're gonna have to sell them at a price that takes my appreciation in account. You want to sell me a house, what do you do right now? Send me the bank. And the bank says, okay, we'll loan you the money at 5%. Well, why don't you sell me the house for 95% of the or 5% of the value and I'll give you bitcoin and you'll do better in 30 years than if I pay 5% interest. We can talk that way too. But you're not getting my bitcoin for some shit that I know is going to fall apart. I'm not giving you bitcoin for a car.
[02:10:09] Speaker A: That is. The thing about sound money is so many people will say Bitcoin is going to change our spending and it's going to, it's going to revalue the world and we're going to understand and we're going to have real interest rates and all of this stuff. Granted, a lot of people who say the oh, you should spend your bitcoin, nobody's spending it in retail, they don't even understand that argument. They don't understand that that's actually, I'm.
[02:10:28] Speaker B: Still wondering where all these fuckers trying to buy a coffee and a scone with bitcoin are. I've been hearing that right for 10 years. I haven't found anybody trying to do it yet.
[02:10:36] Speaker A: But the thing is, is that they literally want bitcoin to fix the money and they want it to be sound money and they want it to fix and fix the multi trillion dollar misallocation of resources and the bad spending habits. But then they want everybody to have the same spending habits. They're literally demanding that everybody keep spending it and just being use it frivolously like they do Fiat, and that it isn't successful if it doesn't do that. But then on the exact other hand, it's like, well, this will change this behavior. It's like, okay, well what would it look like if it was changing the behavior? Maybe it was making people think twice about spending it on stupid, frivolous, cheap stuff. Yeah, I don't know. Maybe, maybe, maybe it's the whole reason that it actually makes the change to begin with is because it's going to go up in value. And suddenly you have to make the, the conscious decision to trade something that's going to be worth more next year for something that you know is just about to disappear. It's a croissant that you're about to eat. Do I need it? Do I really need it?
Is this really the car I need? Do I need to spend this much money on it? Fiat literally incentivizes you to do, to buy cheaper, crappier stuff that is more important in the short term. So it's out of, it's out of line with the natural state of what financial decisions we would make. Whereas bitcoin is actually on the other side because it's being monetized. It's actually going to be more conservative than the natural state. This is Gresham's law. Is this going to make you be even more frugal than anything that would naturally arise? After we end up on a bitcoin standard, we will get more likely to spend it and just use it day to day. As it becomes more and more liquid in all of its monetization, premium gets basically priced out and it falls to like a 15% every year growth in accordance with or in reflection of everything else. But other than that, it's doing exactly what it needs to do to fix that problem. And this is what it would look like.
[02:12:36] Speaker B: It has to change the behavior prior to it being adopted into the new behavior model. You can't take hard money, shove it into a soft money model and expect it to fix everything without altering the behavior. It's the person is saying, I want Ozembic, I don't want to eat a good diet. That's exactly, it's the same exact thing. Like the best thing Musk just tweeted out like last week or whatever. X'd out whatever the it's called now. Right. The best thing we could do for health in America is make Ozembic available to everybody. And I'm like, yeah, that is fiat thinking. That is absolute fiat thinking. Like instead of changing the behavior, we'll change the thing. Well, the thing will eventually stop working.
Right. My sister in law, I think took one or two doses of Ozembic and she's been wrecked for a year. She lost weight because she can't fucking eat anything now because that fucked up her digestive system. I guess it worked technically, but that's not what we're looking for. We have to change the behavior first. And aren't these people all these people? I will give them one thing that are advocates of spending your bitcoin. They're actually hardcore bitcoiners, most of them anyway. They actually buy bitcoin all the time. Every time you take dollars and convert it into bitcoin. Aren't you actually making the statement? We're making that if, if, if it was about spending dollars, spend easier, but yet you're buying bitcoin with dollars. You're basically taking your money out of their casino and you're putting it into your own storehouse. And that's stating right there that you, you and higher value than this other thing.
[02:14:08] Speaker A: Yeah.
[02:14:09] Speaker B: So if somebody wants bitcoin, I'll give them bitcoin. It's just not my bitcoin. I'll spend dollars into bitcoin and I'll spend dollars. They receive bitcoin. I don't have an accounting problem at all. And I feel like the government don't pay taxes. Yeah, I, I hear you. I get what you're saying. And to be honest, if my neighbor gives me bitcoin dollars or anything for a couple boxes of ammo, I reloaded for them across the offense. I'm probably not putting that on my tax form, but I'M running a business and I'm not having everything I own destroyed by. Around and finding out the hard way, like when I'm taking payments into my business and I'm paying expenses with those payments, there has to be a cash trail, right? And until we get over this, if I want to buy another house, I want to be able to go borrow money. I have to show income to do that. There's a lot of things that you'll give up in society if you, if. If you play it that way. When to me people say we'll do taxes, I get the taxes. But let me tell you, my effective tax rate after my accountant got done with everything last fucking year was 12 and a half percent.
Because I understand something most people don't, and that is the tax code is like two 1980s phone books. But 90% of it is how you get out of doing what 10% of it says you have to do. So I'd rather focus on doing it completely legally, even if I think it's immoral because it benefits me. And that's really what we're talking about here can all be summed up in one thing. Incentives. Humans work on incentives. And when you understand the incentives, then you play the game better than people who do not.
[02:15:39] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, And I love that Carl brought up the whole time thing is like, that really is the. The major thing for understanding, for relating the value of bitcoin. Like the. All of the times that I have cashed out, I've used my bitcoin for life. It has always been on something that I just realized that in 10 years, like, let's say whatever, the bitcoin I had was going to be worth $50 million. And then if I spent this, it was only going to be $40 million or something. Something ridiculous, right? 20 years or whatever the timeline is. Right? Is that. Okay, well, in that time, if right now my choice is to start a family, is to get a house for us to settle down, to have like a sense of stability in our life. And then not having that, but then having 20 million extra dollars in 20 years, I don't really care. Like, what is 20 million extra dollars at that time, when I've taken the best years of my life to build a family and to do these things or to make an investment in a project that I really, really hope, like the Pear Drive project or whatever, that was another one that I just did that math on. I was like, yeah, okay, like, this is the time to actually do this. If I want to feel like I'VE actually put a piece of, of my attempt to make things better on the board. Then I do it now, I don't do it in seven years, you know, and what's the cost? If it cost me this, this X amount, if it cost me one bitcoin today to do this and then in five years it's a million dollars, am I okay with losing that? And it's all about long term time frames. It's all about the time lost that ends up becoming the most valuable comparison to understanding when you want to use Bitcoin. But ultimately at the end of the day, Bitcoin is my money. Time is my measurement for whether or not I should use it.
Lifetime measure, like lifetime framing for when and how I should use it. And the dollar is nothing but my payment network. It's just the easiest way to make use of my bitcoin. And I don't hold that crap in a payment network for any length of time at all.
So yeah, thing that should be your metric for whether or not it is worth that trade off.
[02:18:08] Speaker B: There's another way to look at that too. Right. So if we look at that time value and say what is deferring pleasure of buying shit right now? By taking let's say a month's salary from a person making about 40 grand a year, that's about 3200amonth. It's a little more because I'm an accounting nerd. So there's 4.34 weeks in a month. It's not four, but just say it's 3200 bucks, right? So out of a year, if you took one month salary and put it into an asset that over the next four years would appreciate at least 10, 10, 10x which Bitcoin blows that right. The out of the water, right? Okay now that means that, that 3, $200 would be worth $32,000.
How many more hours would you have had to work to make that 32 grand if you had just done it through the use of your labor?
And the answer is you would had to work about 80% of a year more over that four year period. You would have to work an extra freaking, what, eight and a half months.
So now you have that time because you already put in the energy, you already put in the time and the value wasn't eroded over time, instead it was increased over time. Yeah, and this is, people try to, when you tell people this stuff they'll say well what's the difference in buying Apple stock then? Or whatever. Well, there's a Huge difference. Because Apple stock does not come without third party risk. I can't decide I want something really, really nice that guy has and say it. Here's my Apple stock. I can't transfer it. I can't leave the country and take my Apple stock with me without filling out a lot of paperwork. I can't self custody my Apple stock.
I can't give my son a 12 word phrase that after I'm dead he has my Apple stock without having.
[02:19:56] Speaker A: Right, like there's explicit counterparty risk. Yeah, you're just saying that you should trust this counterparty. The value of a good money is the lack of a counterparty is. It doesn't matter what Apple does. It doesn't matter what any of these other, what level of like Apple could make a terrible decision or you know, could die and then the, you know, stock plummets, you know, these sorts of things. Like it has massive counterparty risk that a, a sound money simply doesn't have over long stretches of time. And right now the only reason it's so volatile right now is because people don't get it. It's because it's, it's not got any of the foundation. It's got, not got the mental hold. And monetary transitions usually take 50 to 100 years. I think this one will happen in 30 to 40 because we have the Internet, you know.
[02:20:46] Speaker B: Yeah.
[02:20:47] Speaker A: All of the historical examples we have.
[02:20:49] Speaker B: Are if you compare it to the Internet, it still puts us in about 1993, 94, where the simpletons on, on the morning show we're trying to figure out what the at symbol in an email was. That's how early this is. And I don't think people really get that.
[02:21:01] Speaker A: Well, I mean it took 40, it really took 40 years for the Internet to become what the Internet is. Like we were still huge, like massively in the mix of like it wasn't until the early 2000s that it really started to take off and started to infiltrate things. And you had Amazon and you had Facebook and you had like all of these things started to come up and it really changed how people interacted with each other and the, the layers of communication. But even today we're just reaching the point where media online and podcasts and Joe Rogan and Twitter are the new media. And the old media is literally just basically nails in the coffin at this point. It's been 45 years.
Like Bitcoin's just supposed to do this in two.
[02:21:49] Speaker B: You know, like I remember in 1980s, me and all my buds, we all had Commodore 64s and there wasn't he. There was the, the whole military government version of the Internet. But we had like our proto Internet where we had these freaking cradles. And you picked up a phone, you had to have a list of phone numbers and you dialed one other computer and you got the handshake tone, you put it in the cradle and then you had a board that was like a giant chat stream, right? And like you, you'd call this one that you knew the other people hung out on and you would. But it was like telegram. Like you had to like.
It was worse because there weren't even hashtags or anything. You had to scroll through mouths to find the last person you were you talking about. It worked, right? And that's how far we've come since when I was a teenager in high school.
[02:22:37] Speaker A: Yeah.
[02:22:38] Speaker B: Today you guys are watching me and Guy live on something called YouTube that nobody even thought would work when they built it. The fucking Google. Only you know What? Google bought YouTube.
They had too much cash.
They had so much cash on hand that the SEC was talking about converting Google stock into a mutual fund because they were not putting enough of their capital to work. So they're like, what can we buy? So they bought YouTube and it turned into what it turned into after they bought it. You know, like this is this type of progression. And if you told somebody, because I did as a marketing consultant back in the early 2000s, you need a YouTube channel. What they said was it's sophomore and it's for kids.
And by what, 2004, every presidential candidate had a YouTube channel. Right? Right.
[02:23:26] Speaker A: Certainly Carlson.
[02:23:29] Speaker B: Certainly by 2000 ads.
[02:23:33] Speaker A: Dude, I know that. Was that like that. That's another one of the things is that they talk about like YouTube being like such like we're not, we're professionals. We're the ones that own film and production. YouTube is not a threat to us. There's just like 15 second videos of nobodies and 100,000 people watch it. Well, that's stupid. That's not sophisticated. That's not real production. And they fail to recognize that there's been zero market between like big million dollar production that actually has the contractual deals to go on a broadcast channel and be blasted out nationally. And you now have it. You have a situation where the dynamic has changed so much that somebody with a 15 second video of just like getting hit in the face with a dodgeball can get a hundred thousand, a million views on YouTube in a matter of weeks. Like if you, if you just like Take a moment and you, you recognize what the shift in the market and the access to the audience is. You know that that is your death. You know that that's the end of it. Because now there's going to be 5, 7 layers of degrees of film type, type of media, type of tutorials and out two hour long podcasts and everything that is going to eat into the attention that you have a monopoly on. And, and you're gonna, and you're gonna, you're gonna miss it completely. Because you think people care about the production quality. No, they care about connection and they care about being entertained. And at the end of the day, they're going to have more production quality when all is said and done because they're going to gut you of your audience and you're not going to have any capital left to actually make it the way you wanted to make it. Like it just.
[02:25:12] Speaker B: And they're out paying these people to advertise for them today. They're out making deals with influencers that are dumbass kids. The reality though is if you want to understand the world, you're better off listening to content like this. And not just us, listen to everybody, including the people that we say are idiots. Right? Because when you, when you do that, it's like being in a room. And that room has 100 windows. And what the media is telling you is we have these three windows for you to look out of and they're all in the same wall. And trust us, what's out there? And even if they're telling you accurately what's outside those windows, there's another frickin 97 windows that you could be looking out of. And that's why like we think people are stupid. But if you look at a game like who Wants to Be a Millionaire? When they ask the audience, the audience is almost, not always, but almost always right in the majority. Because when you get collective intelligence from different vantage points, you tend to get a clearer view of the problem you're trying to solve. So this is why they hate it. I mean, I don't know about you, but when Trump got shot in the ear, I knew more in 2 hours on x then the media seemed to know 2 weeks later.
Like we had pictures of the ladder, we had like guys saying they saw like the, the, the, the crowdsourcing or that dude that just popped the ua, the healthcare CEO in New York City. And they, they, you know, the police discovered that he used this electric bike. No, some random dude on X posted that figured it out himself from publicly available information long before the cops knew anything about. About it. So we have that many different signal points coming in that gives you a better picture. Right. It's just like a digital camera. Like, the higher the megapixels, the clearer the image.
And I, I don't see that ever going backwards now.
And I think that's why we're in a defendable position with what we're doing, because it's. There's too many of us. If it's just me or you squish, right? Miyagi squish like grape, right? But when you have thousands and thousands of people mining node running, disseminating information, even if some of them are wrong, the. The picture that the person that actually consumes all of that information and thinks for themselves gets is a clearer picture. Even if it's not 100 accurate, it's still better.
[02:27:30] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. It's. It's. It's ultimately the.
Oh, man, what's the quote?
It's the. Don't try to. Don't try to defeat them within their game. Create a new game.
Change the, you know, the nature.
Change the nature of the fight altogether is that, like, new technology changes the landscape. You didn't change. It's like a change in the football field or a change in the rules of football rather than trying to play it within their rules. And then, you know, every time the referee just issues 20 points to the other team, just be like, well, I'm gonna touch down harder this time.
[02:28:10] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah.
[02:28:11] Speaker A: And, oh, you're playing a fundamentally broken game. So get on a field in which the refs can't change the points. You know, like, it's. It's a. The technology itself fundamentally changes the landscape of what the.
What is between you and your audience, what is between you and the person you want to receive more money. And Bitcoin has so deeply and fundamentally changed that. And everybody's just lost in the weeds. They're just. There's lost in the. What about the app? It's not like it's not as good as WhatsApp. And they. They fundamentally miss the fact that the foundation has shifted. It has shifted massively. And even the level of things that we can argue about and we can be completely ungrateful about having fixed, like, basically, we're already spoiled. And the level of thing that we argue about is that we should have total and complete, utter, unbreakable privacy, and we should have total and utter sovereignty over all of our money in the digital space, and we should be able to spend it. Censorship resistant like, that has become the standard because of what a staggering leap bitcoin is. The idea of suggesting that back in 2008, you'd have been laughed at. What are you talking about? None of exists. None of this exists. You're literally talking about start like, okay, I want a teleporter, you dummy. You know, like. But 2009, suddenly, that is the context of the conversation. It is the thing that you can actually hope and expect to have at some point in the future. It's just something we still got to build.
[02:29:48] Speaker B: So now I'm going to ask you the question. Everybody in the bitcoin space that's. That's legit like you are, hates being asked, what do you think the cycle high is this time?
He just pushed his glitch button somewhere.
[02:30:02] Speaker A: Between 200 and 500, 000.
[02:30:04] Speaker B: That's kind of where I am.
That's kind of where I. I think I posted 214 to 250 about a couple weeks ago. And somebody said, that won't work this time. Okay.
[02:30:15] Speaker A: In my. In my Goku Super Saiyan meme that I did, I put it in the. The next time on Dragon Ball Z, the thing in the outro of the meme. Yeah, it. I had 2. 271, 700 something on his. On his like Super Saiyan thing. So that was like the price. So that'll be my unofficial prediction for where it tops. Oh, yeah.
[02:30:41] Speaker B: I remember I said that. I said I just called the top of the market at whatever it was that was you, and he was like getting stronger. And everybody else, it was like anime and everybody else is getting. Okay, I remember that now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't know.
[02:30:54] Speaker A: Like, maybe if it ends up there, that would be glorious because it was totally right. I just. I just threw a number in there. But yeah, I don't. I think people will think it's over, you know, at 140, 150, and there will probably be like a 40 dump. Like, there will be a significant crash. And people be like, this is over.
And it will basically just punch everybody in the nuts who is convinced that it's done. And it will not be done.
Bitcoin takes the path of greatest pain every single time. Your expectation is going to make you lose money if you start, like betting on that. Especially if you think about the short term.
[02:31:35] Speaker B: Especially if you think with the fork right. Everybody that thinks they can outsmart the timing ends up hurt. And including very smart people. And I think the worst thing that can happen is you can pull it Off a couple trades and then you think you're better than you are and you think you've got it figured out and the next thing you know you're, you're watching a God candle while you're out.
[02:31:57] Speaker A: Yeah, I think D.C. over a weekend while markets are closed and.
[02:32:02] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah. What do you think about Garrett's question here? He said, would you recommend selling bitcoin for a home purchase? First time home buyer, modest home, down payment only and finance the balance. It sounds like somebody just, they want a house and they don't have the down payment. I, I can't tell somebody what to do.
If you have half a million dollars worth of bitcoin and you need 20 grand for a down payment. That's a very different question. If you have $20,000 in Bitcoin, you need $20,000 for a down payment, like exactly. I, I think that it's a function of what, what are we talking about as a percentage of your holdings and how valuable is it to you to have a house? And then there are people. Yeah.
[02:32:45] Speaker A: What's the trade off? The trade off like renting for some span of time before, you know, we get through the potential, another cycle top or something.
I would say like I did sell some back in 2017 to put a down payment on the house, but I did everything in my power to put as little as I could down. I did a FHA assistance and like I, I did as. And I also bought a crappy house. I bought a house that required a lot of fixing up and I mean we've made it way more valuable today. But you have to remember that if you buy the house that the dollar is going to be printed.
You're, you're going to get free equity in the house over time because of the, simply because of the inflation rate the amount of money did. So I would compare that to like what, what equity you're going to build in the house, which might be 5%, 7%, 10% a year tops to what Bitcoin's typical CAGR is, which is like, like what's the return per year? I think right now it's like 150% like per year over like, you know, if you put it out over long stands, which I think is probably more realistically like 60 if you kind of like take out some of the early zones and like the peak periods. Yeah. So if you're getting, if your interest rate is less than 60%, probably just makes sense to hold a bitcoin, then take the debt basically and it's also not impossible, especially right now when we're heavily in a bull market.
[02:34:30] Speaker B: Yeah.
[02:34:30] Speaker A: To loan against, to get a loan, a collateralized loan against your bitcoin. But don't do it to a point where if Bitcoin drops 40%, you get called out and you lose all your bitcoin. Don't do that. Do something that you can manage. So like if you need $20,000 in down payment and you have a hundred thousand dollars in bitcoin, well, well, then you can do that. Take out a loan at, you know, or whatever.
And then you're, you're so. You're super unlikely to get like, just demolished because that is, that is a leverage trade. It's just like very thin. It's just like deep.
[02:35:07] Speaker B: Yeah.
[02:35:07] Speaker A: You know, it's not like a crazy future 100x futures contract or something. Yeah.
So that is something to be careful about. But in this environment, it might be the way to go. I've done that throughout the previous bear markets and it's worked out really great in my favor. It would have cost me, I think, 5x the amount of bitcoin as it costs right now to get rid of all of that debt, which, it's not much, it's like two loans. But it definitely worked heavily in my favor.
And you know, after, you know, if it doubles or something and you know it cost you 20,000 and that was going to be 0.2 bitcoin, and then bitcoin goes to 240,000. Now it costs you 0.08 bitcoin or something like that. Well then, okay, I'll just close it out and then you can pull it in the equity of the house or whatnot. And then you get another bear market. Well, then great opportunity to take equity out of the house and buy some more bitcoin again. And I think those strategies definitely value the bitcoin as your foundation.
[02:36:09] Speaker B: Yeah, I agree. And I'll say, like, if you're talking about buying houses, then what? The first thing you need to do is learn how to actually buy a house. Which you notice they don't teach that in school. Like what to look for, how to buy a house. Right. So the best way to learn how to buy a thing is first learn how to sell it. If you learn how to sell a thing effectively, then you learn how to buy effectively. So I have a method of selling your house that's worked dramatically well for my audience for a long, a long time. It's called the 1% effect. And all we do is we look at all the comparable homes in our price range in our general area where somebody would be looking, most buyers are shopping a zip code or two at most, right? So we want to know what's available and we don't want to just look at the price. We want to look at the condition of the house in the range. And we sit with this concept. All buyers are settlers. Everybody settles for less than they want. I don't care if you're buying a five million dollar house in Malibu, you still would have preferred to have the seven million dollar house that you can't afford. So everybody's settling and that's the key to triggering the buy. So we look at the market and we make our house show 1% better than everything else in the price range. And we will sell that house. And I mean in days I've sold every house. I've sold them in good markets, bad markets, shitty markets. I made money on every house I've sold above my asking price over 20 years, six times I've sold houses with that formula. So now we reverse engineer that. You want the house that doesn't have like a foundation falling apart. It doesn't have the Beverly Hillbillies living next door, you know, or, or something like that. It's not like a complete deal breaker shows 1% less than the median. That house will sit there for days and days and days, except in the hottest markets and eventually that seller will capitulate. And I'll give you an example of how the buy side works. Here's my house and I did buy it in 2013. 2500 square feet, five bedrooms, three acres, a 1500 square foot metal shop, a 800 square foot metal shop, fenced and cross fenced with chain Link. I paid $200,000 for my house because it showed like dog. But nothing was actually hard to fix. You're looking for the lazy seller that won't do the little things. Like there was peel and stick parquet flooring throughout the house.
Easy fix. Cost some money. Certainly didn't cost as much money as the differential in the value of the house. And by the way, they listed it for 265 and I eventually got it for 200. Right. Because it's that exact. Like as soon as I saw it, I'm like, I could do anything I want here and these won't fix this easy. That's the house you want to buy. And if you learn to buy that house and then you do what you said, you can use leverage way more effectively if you need to. But I'd be very.
Make sure it's not an emotional decision. There's so many people, you know, the millennial and Gen Z, like catchphrase is now what? I'll never own a house. Make sure that's not baiting you into doing something before you're ready.
I think, and I don't care if you use bitcoin or not. I think that can be a very bad thing. Is the idea that as long as, as long as I buy the house, somebody else will pay more for it later. That doesn't always work out either, does it, Guy?
[02:39:20] Speaker A: Yeah.
Does it always? No.
[02:39:25] Speaker B: Yeah. So one of my best friends, I knew he was in deep because he paid like 300 plus for something in Connecticut back in like, I want to say around 2011 or something like that. And then he said, but somebody will always pay more for it in the future.
And I'm like, man. And I didn't say it because I don't ever want to say something like this to somebody I like. But I was thinking, you're one divorce away from finding out how up that belief was. And it was two years later he got served with divorce by his wife. And it was right in the middle of like a down market too. And they took like a hundred thousand dollar bath on the place, you know, because she wasn't gonna listen to reason, they had to sell it. So they both ended up with debt instead of money. Yeah, it's just be careful when you buy guys, you know, always almost like.
[02:40:09] Speaker A: It'S almost like if they had consensus, it would have been better.
[02:40:12] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah.
[02:40:14] Speaker A: We don't have consensus protocols. You can't like to not realize the staggering value of that of like something that persists in the spite of disagreement when you can't even get people who love each other and trying to spend their lives together to degree on stuff like the most vicious battles like that. It just do not, cannot, cannot understate how valuable that is, that the rules are the same no matter who disagrees with it.
[02:40:42] Speaker B: And like kind of macro generic, otherworldly. Yeah, yeah. My macro generic Uncle Jack advice in this is spend every penny like it's bitcoin, because it could be.
[02:40:55] Speaker A: Yeah.
[02:40:55] Speaker B: I think that's one of the problems we have is people are too quick to part with their money. I don't know, but y'all got a lot stingier over. Over the last 10 years, I've gotten more wealthy and stingier. And I don't mean I won't help people. I don't mean I'm greedy. I mean, that buying for myself is where I'm stingy. Like, oh, I don't need that. Oh, I don't need that. I don't need that. Like I always say, like, well, if I didn't buy this thing and I bought bitcoin, how much bitcoin would that be?
[02:41:18] Speaker A: Yeah.
[02:41:18] Speaker B: So even when it's dollars, I can spend. Well, I can spend it on bitcoin or I can spend it on another gadget. And what do I really need and want and what am I willing to give up to have more later? And I think the time preference thing is huge. Here's a question for you.
[02:41:34] Speaker A: You want to try to. I was about to say I'm going to be running out of time here. Do you want to like lightning round through these.
[02:41:41] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
[02:41:42] Speaker A: Super chats?
[02:41:43] Speaker B: Yeah, let's do this. Is that quick? Right. If Trump were to be able to executive order a strategic reserve day one, which he said he's going to do, would that change your price per prediction if, if Trump really does announce the United States is creating a strategic bitcoin.
[02:41:58] Speaker A: Reserve over the short term? Yes. Like for this cycle. Yeah, probably. Okay, it. That, that would be a huge deal. But I also think we're in the cycle in which governments are talking about strategic reserves one way or the other. Yeah, but certainly short, like in the, in the short run, decisions in which country and whatnot, and you know what, companies put it on their balance sheet will make a big difference. But I, but I think we're going to have a hell of a run because countries are going to decide to do that in, at this, this era.
[02:42:36] Speaker B: I think, I think when you have like the most powerful economic power in the world, though, if they do it, it's going to make a lot of other people feel like they have to be ridiculous.
[02:42:46] Speaker A: Yeah.
[02:42:47] Speaker B: I almost feel like any G7 would have a major impact. Maybe the US would have the most. But one G7 nation doing it, I think you're going to see a lot of piling in real quick. Anarchy. Not a question. Just says thanks in advance and threw us 7.77. So thanks for that GM guy. Do you think there will be another vicious bear market or more like super cyclish? So do we get two things on that?
[02:43:13] Speaker A: Yeah, two things on that is one is it's really easy. I've, I've thought so many times through multiple like cycles in the past that like this was it. Yeah, people are really, really hard to change how they think. I, I don't think super Cycle. I think we're in the super cycle and the, the vicious bear market are just, are just what happens in the super cycle. It's just a time frame thing. The super cycle is 50 years.
So yes, there will be, there will be vicious bear markets. I also hope, I really hope there will be vicious bear markets. And it's not because I mean yeah, cheap sats are great and I want another thing to stack or whatever. And it very much changes people's mentality and how they think about volatility and what things should be in the economy rather than having a natural economy actually exist and then you know, operating within it. But it also is exactly what's needed to wipe out the horrible irresponsible behaviors of the fiat world is they are going to leverage themselves. They are going to fractional reserve bitcoin. They will, but the bear market will kill them. It will kill them. If they continue to do what they have done in the fiat world. They will get their asses and handed to them. We will end up probably this cycle with some major bank that is holding a hundred thousand bitcoin and they've got 200,000 worth of Bitcoin tokens out there that people are using and somebody is going to withdraw, Michael Sailor is going to withdraw, try to withdraw 110 and it's going to call their bluff and they are going to collapse. And I, that is what I think will end this probably this cycle is the collapse of a major fiat name, a JP Morgan, a city group, like.
[02:45:03] Speaker B: Somebody saying they have something they don't.
[02:45:05] Speaker A: It will be someone from the legacy system that makes a massive investment in bitcoin and thinks that they can do the same, pull the same. Okay, for the last 50 years. Because this is just how you do business.
[02:45:16] Speaker B: So you're not saying it'll be sailors custodian, it'll be somebody bullshitting and, and.
[02:45:22] Speaker A: And somebody with a lot of bitcoin in that thing will withdraw and they will realize they can't play the same fake like paper game that they can in fiat. And they will be the bitcoin will be the demise that, that'll be my prediction for this cycle. Bitcoin will be the demise of a massive bank.
[02:45:42] Speaker B: All right? And then they'll say Bitcoin failed and it died again.
[02:45:46] Speaker A: And it was a Ponzi. Look, the bank invested was the Ponzi. Yeah, coin exposed it. You dumb, dumb.
[02:45:56] Speaker B: But have you ever noticed nobody would like you get a Ponzi like a big investment Ponzi. What's his Name the guy back in the early 2000s that they made off. They never blame the dollar for the Ponzi. They blame the Ponzi. Until it's bitcoin, then it's bitcoin's the Ponzi. Yeah, I've heard that one too. Like, bitcoin holds.
[02:46:14] Speaker A: It literally don't survive in bitcoin.
Mount Gox, ftx, Terra Luna. Like, they do not reinflate. Bitcoin is the Ponzi killer.
[02:46:25] Speaker B: Every supposed failure of bitcoin was actually a success of bitcoin exposing the Ponzi. Right.
Bitcoin lifts the veil that the magician is trying to hide with the pretty girl with the big tits in front of you. That's. That's what it is.
Why are people I watch on YouTube saying Bitcoin's been up for seven weeks in a row? Coinbase says different. I don't.
[02:46:46] Speaker A: I don't know. If you gotta advertise something on YouTube, it's probably just, yeah, chill. Or some trader. Especially if they're telling you what bitcoin did in the last seven weeks, as if it's like declarative.
I don't know. Everything just moves up and down. It's crazy. I mean, it's been quote unquote up for the last seven weeks. It's higher than it was seven weeks ago. But it certainly didn't get in a straight line.
[02:47:05] Speaker B: No, it always goes up and down. But I don't think that's really. I mean, it's irrelevant.
[02:47:11] Speaker A: You're just, you're just listening.
[02:47:13] Speaker B: What day are you starting your weekend? Monday or Sunday might even change that in the end. You know, it looks pretty good over the last three months. I'll just. And that's 90 days. So whatever. Moving on.
Was bitcoin supposed to be a payment system from its origin?
[02:47:29] Speaker A: You know, I would say the major problem with that question is supposed to be.
[02:47:35] Speaker B: Yeah.
[02:47:36] Speaker A: Is what is supposed to be mean? According to who? Like you're. You're saying that someone narrative about bitcoin trumps or suggesting that maybe the narrative around bitcoin or what? I think bitcoin should be trumps what bitcoin actually is.
[02:47:50] Speaker B: Yeah.
[02:47:51] Speaker A: Is it a global, decentralized payment system that anybody can use for retail and it scales to 8 billion people? No, it is not at all. It never was. The very first response to Satoshi. The very first response to Satoshi in releasing the white paper was, this is cool, but it doesn't scale. So, no, it is not and was not from its origin the payment system that a lot of people say it was, it seemed like it when you still only had a 10,000 people or 100,000 people using it because it specifically works and looks like one. When it doesn't have to scale. When it's really small, it does appear and work a lot like one, but it doesn't survive that. And it does not survive the characteristics or any of the elements that make it decentralized. When you scale that up to 100 million and a billion people. This is the problem of all networks, since always is. How do you scale across the. The cultural cohesion and the social cohesion layer.
[02:48:54] Speaker B: And every form of money, good or bad, has always had systems developed for it. The money itself wasn't the system. So you can build a payment system that integrates bitcoin. And I, you know, I also kind of look at this as like, Volvo is one of the smartest companies in the world. At least they were because they were willing let the market tell them what they were. So when Volvo was initially really marketing the out of themselves about 40 years ago, they wanted to be cool. And Evolva was anything but cool. But the market decided when they looked at crash data, it was the safest car you could put your kid in. And Volvo got handed the brand of safety. Somebody in that company was smart enough to go shut the up. If that's what the market says and they're the ones with the money, then that's what we are. The market will always define the utility. In the end, no matter what the creator thought they were making. How many things in your home do you have and you use and you like that. They weren't quite what the vision of the creator had for it when it was created. Like if you look at things like a television set today, like it doesn't do what the first person said a television set was supposed to do.
[02:50:05] Speaker A: Lumiere brothers created the cinematograph, the first film camera. And they thought it was a gimmick. Yeah, they, I mean they invented it, but they never thought like, you know, ended up being in Nickelodeon's, which were the things that you look in and like for five seconds you could put a nickel in it and it would show you a moving image. And that was like the cool thing. And the Lumiere brothers did like the train in the theater room or whatnot. But they didn't think to sell stories with it. It would be like this massive media enterprise or whatnot. They just built it because they thought it was cool looking.
[02:50:36] Speaker B: Or Kodak had The first digital camera in the 70s and didn't think anybody would want it.
[02:50:40] Speaker A: Yeah.
[02:50:41] Speaker B: Now every single person with a camera phone has a digital camera 100 times better than it. And it's probably used more than the phone part of the phone. Right.
[02:50:49] Speaker A: I mean, and I will say Satoshi absolutely was trying to build that. The cypherpunks have been trying to build that forever like for like 30 years. Like the entire history of like that culture and that thinking. And importantly, Satoshi solved the handful of core problems that will enable us to build that. And in his effort to build it, he solved a problem that is, that is foundational to the ability to have a global decentralized, trustless payment system that everybody system.
[02:51:23] Speaker B: You must first have a money to go in it.
[02:51:26] Speaker A: But he just.
[02:51:27] Speaker B: Money.
[02:51:27] Speaker A: First building block. Yeah, first building block. And now it's like inventing a new type of steel and saying like, oh, it's going to be a bridge. But we still don't know how to engineer bridges. Like with this new steel we still have to build the bridge.
[02:51:41] Speaker B: But you need the steel first.
[02:51:42] Speaker A: But you got to have the steel.
[02:51:44] Speaker B: You got to have the steel. You got to have the better still. What's the best way to invest Bitcoins and ETFs. If your money is stranded somewhere, you can't buy it directly. That's the best. That's.
[02:51:53] Speaker A: Yeah, stuck in an IRA or yeah, you know, a 401k that your business, your employer is matching or something like that. That's when you do an etf. If you can do self custody then just, just buy bitcoin. I agree you got risk and you got fees and stuff with ETFs.
[02:52:10] Speaker B: But I'm of the belief that surplus capital goes into bitcoin and stranded. Surplus capital goes into a bitcoin etf. That's the way. But it has to be stranded or there's no purpose. Unless you're, if you're a high frequency trader, which you wouldn't be listening to us if you were. You'd be busy doing your high frequency trading. You could save a lot of money in fees using ETFs as your trading mechanism. But I don't do that because I'm one of those people that I made a lot of really good trades and made a lot of money. And then I thought I was good and then I was just like my, my old mentor who was a North Carolina redneck with a Harvard mba. That is a dangerous man. Used to tell me, jack, even a turkey can fly in a Tornado you if you go into trading right at the beginning of a bull market, you can't it up as long as you're patient. But sooner or later the bull turns into a bear and then do you have the staying power to wait for it to come back? And sure you do. If you bought it for money you had and you didn't need but if you leverage your way into it, at least I never did that, then you're right and I, I. So yeah I think that's is it stranded capital otherwise that you would want to invest in bitcoin. And a lot of the Roth 401s now have a broker's option inside them. So even if they said here's your 10 and funds or whatever, you can still go outside of that fold and that's all you know and do that please.
Beno, the last one we got for you guy is metal.
[02:53:37] Speaker A: I agree Carl. It's weird and metal. Sorry.
[02:53:40] Speaker B: Do you think that this will be the last cycle where alts and shit coins have significant market share? If bitcoin market cap reaches five plus trillion. Well that's way off. Will altcoins and stable coins keep up?
[02:53:55] Speaker A: They will continue. Altcoins specifically, they will continue to not keep up. There will probably be short periods where they do outpace just because less liquid.
So not unexpected. But I think we'll, I really just kind of think the trend of the last two cycles will play out again.
The last cycle was not exaggerated in crypto as it was in 2017.
[02:54:21] Speaker B: Yeah.
[02:54:22] Speaker A: And then I think this cycle will not be as exaggerated as the 2020-21 period and, and it will just keep diminishing returns. But I think there will, there will be an alt market every single time for a long time to come. And specifically I think stablecoins will actually be huge because I think stablecoins will threaten the actual payment system in banking infrastructure. So stablecoins could very well like a dollar. Stablecoin could very well outpace Bitcoin because that's about a technological infrastructure change, not a monetary change. And we could see a lot of banks go to that. Like that's like rather than changing the dollar market itself.
What's a good analogy?
It's just like imagine all the banks went to, you know, they used to do cash, debit and all this stuff and then they went to credit cards and electronic cards. I think stablecoins is a mirror to that sort of thing. It doesn't change the monetary infrastructure and the monetary rules or who's the master or anything. Like that. But it does change how payments are made and how you own it and all of those things. So I think, I actually think stablecoins will be huge because they're more like the old media going to the Internet. You know, it's. Yeah, it's them opening up their streaming service, but they're still outpace Bitcoin.
[02:55:46] Speaker B: You mean in adoption and use, not in value. Because obviously they're not going to open value.
[02:55:49] Speaker A: In value. In value. The fiat is already. The fiat is just the value.
[02:55:53] Speaker B: Yeah.
[02:55:54] Speaker A: Like the dollar is already way bigger than bitcoin. I'm saying the amount of share Stable coins. Yeah, because the dollar is bigger. It could be the stable coins themselves of the dollar could be bigger than.
[02:56:07] Speaker B: Bitcoin in market cap for instance and transaction usage, but not in unit value. Yeah, I would agree.
[02:56:12] Speaker A: The unit value is just the, is just the dollar. It doesn't. If it's not the dollar, it's worthless. You know.
[02:56:18] Speaker B: And that's why, you know, we'll wrap up here and I'll kind of. John is asking would Litecoin serve as the day to day purpose of transacting while bitcoin serves as a store of value? Basically Litecoin serving the role as currency. And I don't think so because in short term transactions in this phase where we have volatility and litecoin tracks bitcoin fairly well, it's just faster and cheaper. I don't see that being the hindrance of adoption for payments being it's one of them but it's not as much as the all the other. Right. So just because it's faster and cheaper doesn't matter what a person is going to spend money at the end of the month wants to know is I have $800 at the first of the month, at the end of this month I have to pay my rent. I don't want that $800 to be $750 at the end of the month. If I'm holding it long term, I do not give a talk. But if I need to spend it then I need that stability. And that's why people get really mad at me. I don't call stablecoin coins any more than I would call the dollar a coin. Right? Like yes, but not.
[02:57:21] Speaker A: You might call it a shitcoin but.
[02:57:24] Speaker B: Not the way you mean it. What they mean is it goes in the same place that something like freaking Solana or something goes. And no, because it actually serves a function for that person that says I want to be digital, I want this self custody thing. But I want some portion of my money in some form that I know I can pay my bills through this month with.
[02:57:46] Speaker A: Yeah. And I would say with the, the litecoin analogy, there's two things to consider is one, it's not actually for what you're getting out of bitcoin and what you're getting out of these networks, it's actually not cheaper and it's not faster. Okay. Because it takes almost a day or like it takes a much, much longer time to actually get the number of confirmations that are equal to the security of a single confirmation on Bitcoin.
So the amount of security that you get just because it's confirmations are faster, it's like, well, how, how does that confirmation relate to the amount of security you get on bitcoin? So it actually isn't cheaper and faster. It's just a appears that way because it's diluted.
[02:58:27] Speaker B: Okay.
[02:58:27] Speaker A: You know, it's like saying that a grocery cart is cheaper and faster than a tank. It's like, well, what are you trying to get out of it?
[02:58:35] Speaker B: What are you trying to do with it?
[02:58:36] Speaker A: What are you trying to do with it? So move groceries to the store, to your car.
[02:58:42] Speaker B: Sure. Invade a country, you need a tank.
[02:58:44] Speaker A: Yeah. The second one though, the second major consideration is what do you want out of a payment system? Like what do you want out of something that you're going to use for payments? Well, you want massive liquidity, you want massive adoption, you want an acceptance and you want something where all of the infrastructure is already in place because you're not going to pay 10 times the infrastructure to invest in something that people don't want and is not as much invested in. So basically bitcoin is more likely to be the payment mechanism and medium of exchange than Litecoin because Bitcoin has higher liquidity and is more valuable. Which means that the payment system, the day to day payment system that people will use while Bitcoin is, remains a store of value during this era is just obviously the dollar. Like nobody would use litecoin over the dollar. That doesn't, that doesn't make any sense. The dollar already has all the liquidity. It already has the payments. And if stable coins are being expanded at the same time, well then you're going to have whole countries and whole populations that have had no access to the dollar. Dollar now actually have access to the dollar. So we will have a two money system. It will be bitcoin the money and dollar the payment network.
[02:59:54] Speaker B: This is, I've been saying this, that they actually want this to happen because they have an inflation problem, obviously, and they need for their system where they need inflation, but they've had too much and so they need some kind of a reset and they're at an end game state unless you can pull something else off. Because if you try to rebase the dollar again, you've already gone this fraction, fraction, fraction, fraction. Now you get fraction of nothing. Right. So there's not really a lot of places to go from here. You can only around with interest rates so much and what have you. And it's only so much contracting of the monetary supply you can do in the current state. But what if you could shove the dollar into every major economy in the world more than it is right now? Well, the way you do that is if you make stable coins accepted. If you were to go as far as to say, listen guy, you're the president of bank of America or whatever, if you guys want your own stable coin, that's fine, it just has to fall under fdic.
Well, now the person in Angola can hold dollars secured by FDIC on a phone. And now you push and you dilute the impact of inflation by pushing more dollars out into the world than exist right now. And I don't know if there's a practical way to do that, but I bet those fuckers are going to come up with some way to basically say a stable coin or I like one of the guys here said, I'd rather they call it a dollar coin because they're not stable. They're stable relative to the dollar. Right. A dollar coin is a stablecoin is.
[03:01:22] Speaker A: Really just kind of a dumb name. It is, honestly, it's like it's not.
[03:01:25] Speaker B: Stable if you're a European.
[03:01:27] Speaker A: Yeah.
[03:01:28] Speaker B: Unless you have a euro one right in your.
[03:01:30] Speaker A: I think a better, a better branding and more accurate. Even though I hate the word crypto now.
[03:01:37] Speaker B: Yeah.
[03:01:37] Speaker A: Is a crypto dollar.
[03:01:38] Speaker B: Okay.
[03:01:39] Speaker A: Rather than a paper dollar and a bank dollar, you have a crypto dollar. You know, dollar coins just as good.
[03:01:46] Speaker B: You know, and then you can sell custody dollars anywhere in the world in a way that's way more secure than putting it in your pocket. There's a lot of places in the world if you have physical dollars on you, you're in danger.
[03:01:57] Speaker A: Mm.
[03:01:58] Speaker B: You're in a lot, a lot of danger. You know, like, you know, there's places where $100 bill is, you know, a month and a half salary and that's not kind of thing you want to walk around with. But if you could break it up in little bits and parts and have it hidden in different nukes and nannies inside a device, that's a whole different world. And I think that's a good place. And I think that's where we're headed. We're. We're heading to a place. Bitcoin's money. Dollar is currency and everything's digital.
And I know there's a lot of maxis that will really hate me for saying that, bro. I forecast weather. I don't make it. I mean, that's, you know, there are. People get mad because at the weatherman, because it rained on Saturday, he didn't make it rain. He just told you it was going to. So, yeah, there's a lot of, you know what we should have. Yeah, that's great. That's awesome. Like, if we had the world I think we should have, the world would be called Jackistan.
Guy would be my vice king and we would tell all of you what my vice king. I don't want to be president of the world. You can't get you done when you're president.
[03:02:58] Speaker A: I just want to be king.
I gotta get vice king to keep me in check.
[03:03:02] Speaker B: Do it for five years, fix everything and then say off, it's yours. Now if you it up again, you had. I really did step back from power.
But that's the way if I got what I want, and most people, if they got what they want, they would have like. Which should be the way I say it should be. Yeah, but it's not. And it's not gonna be.
[03:03:21] Speaker A: I actually want to answer Timothy.
50,000 XRP or one Bitcoin. So I just looked it up real quick. So one, one ripple coin, which is awful. I would never hold this for any length of time, but it's worth 40,700 XRP, which means that I could buy more than one bitcoin with that amount of XRP. So if you want to send it to me, I will. The, the problem is, is that that means, oh, if I'm allowed. Allowed to spend it. No, you give it to me, I do whatever the hell I want with it. It's going to become bitcoin. So, yeah, if I want 1.2 Bitcoin, is 1.2 Bitcoin better or 1 Bitcoin better?
[03:04:04] Speaker B: Yeah.
[03:04:04] Speaker A: The problem is that 1.2 Bitcoin requires me to set up an exchange. Set up with an exchange. And I have to swap it. And I hope that it doesn't dump in price. I have to hold It. In the meantime, I have to install some software. So the question is all. Is all that annoyance worth point 2 bitcoin? Maybe. Depends on what I'm doing this afternoon.
[03:04:25] Speaker B: Let's. Let's make it a little easier for you. It's in a smart contract. I'll give it to you, but it doesn't get released for five years.
[03:04:32] Speaker A: Absolutely not.
Not in a million.
[03:04:37] Speaker B: You're taking the bitcoin, right?
[03:04:38] Speaker A: Yeah, I'm taking the bitcoin. Not even close.
[03:04:41] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah.
[03:04:42] Speaker A: I would not touch that.
[03:04:43] Speaker B: If it's locked up and you can't.
[03:04:45] Speaker A: Do anything, you give it to me for free. All right, whatever.
[03:04:48] Speaker B: Because I mean we're obviously in hypotheticals here because if somebody's going to give me anything that's hypothetical, so we might as well, you know, make it a little bit more clear because usually when somebody gives you something, it doesn't come without condition.
[03:04:58] Speaker A: Yeah.
[03:04:59] Speaker B: You know, unless it's your dad or something. Usually if somebody's going to do a thing for you.
Yeah, yeah. If you told me five years, it told me two years. I have to hold it because man.
[03:05:10] Speaker A: If I couldn't get rid of it. Today, today for bitcoin. No, I'm not, I. I'm not stretching this overnight. No, just give me a bitcoin. I, I got.
[03:05:19] Speaker B: Well, I'll put it this way. I occasionally get somebody. I want to buy a membership from you and I want to Pay with ShitCoin XYZ. Hold on a second. I'll pull up a couple exchange accounts. Do they have it? Yes. I will generate an address on. I don't move it to an exchange, it goes straight to that exchange, it goes straight to bitcoin and it goes straight to the stack. I mean, so yeah, that's. So technically I will take a shit coin. But I don't wanna. And I don't. You know what? Back during the big last big altcoin run, there were people wanted to pay. I haven't had a payment in a shitcoin.
I think I had one for litecoin a few weeks ago. At one this year it's. It's all bitcoin. The other thing is when I started guy, I started in 08. That's how long I've been doing this. Crazy.
[03:06:02] Speaker A: Yeah.
[03:06:03] Speaker B: And I used to get a lot of payments. Probably a good couple dozen a month where people mailed me physical silver in the mail.
I haven't seen that since.
[03:06:13] Speaker A: I think he told me about that.
[03:06:14] Speaker B: I think you told me is the last time I got A silver order in the mail. I've had people show up here and want to do it and since they're here, they'll hand you a few ounces for a couple years or something like that. But. But no, I have not had anybody pay with silver since before the. Before the block wars has been the last time somebody mailed me silver. And there was a problem with it too. I had a lot of times like an envelope would show up and some in the post office figured out there was silver in there and stole it.
[03:06:43] Speaker A: Oh my God.
[03:06:44] Speaker B: Now, since I'm not selling a physical product and I care about man, I.
[03:06:47] Speaker A: Wish you had a. I wish you had a digital bear asset final settlement.
[03:06:53] Speaker B: And yeah, be great.
Anyway, man, hey, I appreciate you giving us three freaking hours today.
Didn't think we'd go that long.
[03:07:02] Speaker A: I feel like we actually got to catch up a bit this time.
[03:07:05] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah.
[03:07:06] Speaker A: Last time I felt rushed.
[03:07:07] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I'll tell you what. I'll let you. I'll let you go. Now I know you're at like an in laws or something and you sequestered yourself in a bedroom or something to do this, so thank you for that. And we're kind of co host today, but if you know, it really is kind of my audience that we've. I've been the more interviewee type and. Or interviewer. You've been more interviewee. If you ever want to flip that around, just tell me. I'm always available to you.
[03:07:31] Speaker A: All right, boss man. Good hanging out, dude. Thank you for having me on. And my, my audience will hear it too. I just. They're not really on YouTube there.
[03:07:41] Speaker B: All right, take care everyone. We'll catch you guys tomorrow. TSP folks. Anyway, with another episode later, guys.
[03:07:53] Speaker A: And that wraps it up with Jack from the survival podcast. Like I said, we got into everything. Got to answer a bunch of good questions there at the end. And it gave me a couple of really great ideas for some more 2sats videos. And if you haven't seen it, I do have a 2sats video that kind of reflects or really tries to make concise and concrete the ideas that I talked about in the guys take for when do I sell my bitcoin or when should I sell bitcoin? And I've gotten a lot of good feedback from that and I really love that format. So I will have the link in the show notes so you can check that out as well as the other two SATs videos that I do. Don't forget to check out fold especially right now. They are giving much bigger boost on gift cards right now because of the Christmas season. So you can actually, you can sign up for the free one and you'll get 20,000 sats just for using my referral. So they're just giving away sats literally. If you want premium, Premium is like nothing. It's like 10 bucks a month, which is basically a coffee with an extra shot in almond milk. And not even kidding you, you can get an Airbnb card right now, just one gift card. If you're about to travel or you want to do Amazon or anything that will literally get you that back. Insides. If you swipe every single thing and you get 0.5% or 1% or whatever and you use gift cards anytime, you use Amazon or Instacart or Doordash or Uber or cvs. Like anything that you do, if you just make their gift cards and the ridiculous sat back that you get for those a priority, like a part of your system, premium so, so easily pays for itself. You would not believe. Like, there's a reason why I have like eight, eight and a half thousand dollars in bitcoin savings in fold. That is what's left after I took out the stuff for Pear Drive. And I've never paid a tenth of that on fold service ever for all of the years that I have used it. I do not know of a service that has more avenues to passively stack bitcoin as Fold does. So check them out. Like I said, 21,000 sets for free. If you just use my referral and a shout out to them for supporting the show and for being my debit card. Check out Jack in the Survival podcast. Legend, Podcaster, OG so many like, fascinating. Especially if you're interested in homesteading and survival. You know, like, how do you truly be sovereign at a next level? That is really what his show is about. And how do you have one foot out the door of relying on everyone else around you? Super core bitcoiner ethos and really just a massive resource for so much stuff. So definitely check that out. I have the link in the show notes and of course, so much more to come. Don't forget to check out the YouTube channel Rumble. Find me on Twitter, on Nostr, on Flare, all of those good things. And I will catch you on the next episode of Bitcoin Audible. And until then, everybody, I'm Guy Swan. Take it easy, guys.